Weekend Review - Premier League GW3 & Championship GW5

Using expected goals (xG), Infogol’s Analyst reviews the weekend’s action from the Premier League and Championship, assessing performances and not just results to paint a clearer picture of the week’s matches, including selecting a Team to Back.



Premier League

Actual vs Expected Goal (xG) totals Premier League GW3 


Crystal Palace suffered their third straight defeat at the weekend, losing 2-0 at home to Swansea. They are still yet to score a goal this season, with the pressure piling on Frank de Boer after just three games. The defeat to Swansea was deemed the most ‘unfair’ result of the weekend, mainly due to the score line – 2-0 was more than expected as there wasn’t much between the two teams in terms of xG. It was a much needed win for Swansea, and Palace desperately need to improve.


Burnley scored a very late equaliser at Wembley to earn an unlikely point against Tottenham. The 1-1 draw was a very fortunate result for Burnley, who conceded a host of chances once again. Spurs failed to take their chances, but had an 80% chance of scoring more than the one goal they did. Unfortunate for Spurs, whose Wembley woes continue, though if they keep performing to a similar level, those woes won’t last much longer.


Tottenham unlucky again at Wembley 


Those two results were seen as the two most ‘unfair’ of the weekend, but Chelsea’s 2-0 win over Everton, Huddersfield’s goalless draw with Southampton and Watford’s goalless draw with Brighton were all slightly unfair. Chelsea were fortunate to win by such a margin, while Huddersfield and Brighton were unfortunate not to come away with all three points after generating the better chances (though credit to Watford, who limited Brighton to few high-quality chances even with 10-men for 65 minutes).


Liverpool hammered Arsenal in a stunning performance at Anfield, in which was the fairest result of the weekend, closely followed by Manchester United’s 2-0 win over Leicester which kept them top going into the International break. West Ham continue to struggle after deservedly getting beat 3-0 by Newcastle, and Manchester City left it very late to get a deserved three points against Bournemouth. The Tony Pulis derby ended in a fair 1-1 draw at the Hawthorns.


Liverpool put in Performance of the week against hapless Arsenal 


GW4 Team to BackLiverpool

Liverpool have been very impressive so far this season, generating a host of chances in every match, culminating in a 4-0 thrashing of Arsenal last time out. They face a tough game against Manchester City in GW4, who are yet to click into gear, and look good value at 3/1 to get another win against one of the big teams.



 Actual vs Expected Goal (xG) totals Championship GW5


Sheffield United’s 3-1 win over Derby was the most ‘unfair’ result of the weekend, but maybe not as ‘unfair’ as being suggested. Though Derby did create more xG than Sheffield United, the Blades went ahead thanks to a goalkeeping error and good finish from Billy Sharp, who finished well from a distance into an open goal. Their second was an own-goal, meaning they were two goals up, and this was before Derby had any major chances. The Ram’s made a fist of it in the second half, before Sharp scored a late third after Derby had committed men, and their goalkeeper, forward, so maybe a ‘fairer’ result than is shown here.


Derby contributing to their own downfall 


Millwall on the other hand, were very fortunate to win by such a margin over Norwich. They hit the Canaries for four without reply, which was fortunate as Norwich created some good chances of their own. A much needed win for Millwall, while Daniel Farke’s time in England hasn’t got off to the best of starts.


Middlesbrough were on the right side of an ‘unfair’ result against Preston, as they were lucky to escape with a goalless draw. Preston generated a lot of good scoring opportunities without taking advantage, and more impressively, limited Boro’s expensively assembled attack to very few chances. Barnsley deservedly beat Sunderland but were fortunate to do so by such a margin (3-0), as were Reading and Hull, who beat Birmingham (2-0) and Bolton (4-0) respectively.


Middlesbrough underwhelming in goalless draw 


Cardiff’s 2-1 win over QPR was the ‘fairest’ result of the weekend, closely followed by the evenly matched goalless draw between Brentford and Wolves. Leeds were impressive in victory over Forest, while Bristol City and Aston Villa deservedly shared the spoils in a game of few quality chances.


GW6 Team to Back QPR

QPR have made a solid start to the season, and there was no shame in going down 2-1 at early pace setters Cardiff last time out. They have created good chances in matches, and in GW6 come up against an Ipswich team that have been fortunate to get the results they have from their performances so far. At a price of 11/10, they look a good value to get back to winning ways.


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