Vasco da Gama vs Botafogo – Match Preview
The Black and White derby takes place this weekend, with both teams coming into the game in good form and on the back of wins in midweek. Infogol’s Analyst previews the game, using underlying expected goals stats to produce the best bets.
Vasco da Gama
Vasco have lost one of their last six games, winning three to maintain their place in mid-table. They have picked up in recent weeks after one win in eight matches, with performances and their process improving.
They gained a good three points away at Avai in midweek, but were very fortunate to do so after a poor display in which they conceded a lot of good chances. This was only the second poor display in six games, the other they lost to Corinthians, but all in all, they have impressed.
They have shown they have the capacity to create a lot of chances, and have generated 8.3xG in their last six matches which is one of the best in the league in that time. They will have a good go in front of their home fans, and expect them to make life difficult for Botafogo.
Botafogo too come into this game in good form having won five of their last six matches, including a 2-1 win over Chapecoense in midweek. That win kept them in the top six and just three points off fourth placed Gremio.
They too have generated a lot of good scoring opportunities, 10.5xG in six matches, scoring 13 so a slight over-performance. Botafogo are having a strong mid-season after a slow start, with the depth of their squad one of the reasons for this improvement.
Though they have been impressive going forward, they have looked vulnerable in defence, conceding a lot of chances in matches, including against Coritiba and Vitoria, and this is something Vasco will be looking to take advantage of.
Both teams come into this game in good form, so expect a very close match. Vasco are expected to come out on top in this game and expose Botafogo’s vulnerable defence. Both teams have shown plenty of ability in attack, so expect both to get on the scoresheet.
BTTS @ 4/5
Vasco da Gama win @ 13/8