Vasco da Gama vs Avai: Big Match Betting Preview

Vasco da Gama vs Avai Betting Tips. Newly promoted pair Vasco da Gama and Avai meet in Rio de Janeiro. Infogol’s Analyst takes a look at the game, using stats and data to select the best bets.




Vasco da Gama

Vasco da Gama have made a steady start on their return to the Brazilian top-flight, winning three of their opening seven matches. All three of their victories have come at Estadio Vasco da Gama, and with them yet to register a point away, their home form will be key this season.


They were poor in midweek away at Chapecoense, creating very few chances, something they usually find very easy. Vasco have one of the highest xG totals in the league so far this season, generating 10.45 xG in their seven matches so far.


Home comfort: Vasco enjoying playing infront of their fans 


They have been dominant in most of their four home matches this season, the only fortunate result a 3-2 win over rivals Fluminense, creating a host of chances in every game with over 77% of their total xG coming at home. Their most recent home game saw them beat Sport Recife, and before that they were on the wrong side of a 5-2 score-line against Corinthians. They were very unfortunate in that game though, as Corinthians created just 1.11 xG – with just a 0.6% chance of hem scoring five.


Vasco vs Corinthians percentage chance: Vasco’s only home defeat



In Luis Fabiano, Vasco have one of the in-form players in Brazil. The 36 year-old Vasco captain has hit the net five times in five matches. He was left out of the squad for away trips to Gremio and their last game Chapecoense in an attempt to keep him fresh and ready for important home games. He is expected to return in this match, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him hit the back of the net again in this match.


Age is just a number: 36 year old former Brazil International Fabiano leading from the front 




Avai have been one of the best defensive teams so far this season, and before their match on Tuesday, they had the best expected goals against (xGA) of anyone in the league, but that was to change.


A one-off? Avai’s poor defensive performance vs Atletico GO 


They showcased that they can be vulnerable in defence, losing 3-1 to Atletico Goianiense, and conceding 3.39 xG. Before that game, they had conceded a combined total of only 4.15 xG this season, so they almost doubled their total in this match.


Avai have lost all of their four away matches so far, only managing one goal in matches against; Sao Paulo, Chapecoense, Atletico Mineiro and Atletico Goianiense. They will need to improve on this away form if they are to stay in the division this season. 


Travel issues: Avai’s away record so far this season 


Though they have been defensively solid in the most part this season, they have failed to make an impact in the attacking third, scoring just three times in seven matches. Avai are averaging 0.67 xG per game, the lowest in the division, something they definitely need to work on in the coming weeks.




Vasco da Gama are expected to be too strong for Avai in this match, and with the return of Luis Fabiano expected, he can lead them to victory. Avai won’t create much in attack, but this should be a tight match.




Vasco da Gama to win @ 4/7

Vasco da Gama to win to nil @ 7/5 

Luis Fabiano to score first @ 3/1 





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