Super Sunday Preview
Super Sunday sees four of the top five teams face off against each other. League leaders Manchester City host Arsenal, while second-place Manchester United travel to face Champions Chelsea. An exciting afternoon of football is expected, and our Analyst previews the action, suggesting the best bets.
Manchester City vs Arsenal – 13.30pm
Manchester City top the table after 10 matches, winning nine of those, and in some style too, scoring 35 goals. They have been very impressive so far this season and have blown away everyone that has been in put in front of them.
They are averaging 2.8 xG per game, and with players like Leroy Sane, Raheem Sterling and Kevin De Bruyne playing as well as they are, this high level of performance is expected to continue. They also have the second best defensive record so far this season (according to expected goals – xG), which is their biggest improvement this season.
Arsenal have won their last two league games, and deservedly so having created plenty of good chances. They are currently fifth in the league, but based on performances they should be third, suggesting they have made improvements from last season.
They too have created a lot of good chances so far this season, the second highest xG in the league, and now they have a near-full complement, have the ability to cause any team problems. Defensively, though, they are regularly exposed, and this could cost them this weekend.
Bet – Manchester City win @ 1/2
The league leaders are expected to be too strong in this game, and Infogol’s probabilities suggest there is some value in their price.
Chelsea vs Manchester United – 16.00pm
Chelsea haven’t had the best of weeks after getting thumped by Roma on Tuesday, a 3-0 defeat in which some of their defending was far from what would be expected from an Antonio Conte team. It is obvious to see how much they are missing N’Golo Kante, as there is no screen in front of the defence, meaning they are conceding more chances than they were last season.
They have been lucky so far this season, having a goal difference of eight but an expected goal difference (xGD) of just 0.6, suggesting their performances haven’t warranted their results. The Blues have over-scored according to the chances they have created, and the goals could dry up unless they improve their process.
Manchester United come into this game on the back of a good week, beating rivals Tottenham last weekend before all-but securing qualification from their Champions League group with a win over Benfica. Mourinho’s side have definitely shifted from emphatic to pragmatic in recent weeks, and have been generating fewer chances in matches as a result.
The upside to this pragmatism though, is that they have been conceding very few chances in games, with their defending rightly getting a lot of plaudits in recent weeks. Another game against a rival is expected to be a tight one, as against Liverpool and Tottenham, with a similarly defensive approach adopted.
Bet – Under 2.5 goals @ 8/13
Chelsea are struggling creating chances going forward, while looking vulnerable at the back –something Manchester United could exploit if they wanted to. But another ‘Mourinho masterclass’ is on the cards in this game, with few goals expected at the Bridge.