Real to edge derby: Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Preview
Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid is the big game in La Liga this weekend, with the hosts aiming to close the gap on their city rivals. Infogol’s Analyst previews the big game, using expected goals (xG) to generate the best bets
Real Madrid Expected Goals (xG)
Real Madrid come into this on the back of an excellent win in the Champions League quarter-final against Juventus, a 3-0 victory in Turin in which Cristiano Ronaldo stole the headlines with a stunning overhead kick in a deserved win (xG: JUV 1.8 – 3.1 RMA).
That was their sixth straight win in all competitions, and their 15th in 17 matches. Though it may appear on paper that Real are having a bad season in the league, that couldn’t be further from the truth.
They have been the second best team by a long way this season, and are very unfortunate not to be closer to Barcelona. They have been the best attacking team in La Liga, generating 84.3 xG in 30 matches, so it is expected that even against a solid Atletico defence, they will get both chances and goals.
Atletico Madrid Expected Goals (xG)
Atletico were also winners in Europe in midweek, beating Sporting Lisbon 2-0 in the Europa League. Antoine Griezmann again found the net, but they were fortunate to come away with a first leg lead according to expected goals (xG: ATM 1.5 – 1.3 SPO).
Diego Simeone’s side are fortunate to be above Real Madrid at this stage of the season, as their process has been poor for a side of their stature. Whilst their tally of just 14 goals conceded would suggest that they have one of the best defences in the league, they should have conceded closer to 35 goals according to chances conceded – which is a huge over performance.
Atleti’s goal threat has been flattered, too, and considering that their process is far inferior to Real Madrid’s, they are likely to be outgunned here.
With just four points between the two Madrid sides, there is a lot at stake in this match. The home side are expected to be too strong and look good value to get the win. Goals are expected, so a Real Madrid and over 1.5 goals looks great value at 11/10.
Real Madrid win @ 3/4
Real Madrid to win and Over 1.5 goals @ 11/10