City slicker: Manchester City vs Manchester United Preview
Manchester City vs Manchester United. City could secure the Premier League title in Saturday’s evening kick off. Infogol’s Analyst uses expected goals (xG) data to generate the best insight and betting tips for the big match.
Manchester City Expected Goals (xG)
Manchester City suffered a surprise 3-0 loss in the first leg of their Champions League quarter-final with Liverpool, deservedly losing due to an abject display in which they created very few chances (xG: LIV 1.6 – 0.6 MCI).
Pep Guardiola will be looking for a reaction from his players, and what better reaction than winning the title by beating your rivals? City’s most recent league game was a comfortable 3-1 victory over Everton, in which a clinical first half performance had the game wrapped up (xG: EVE 1.1 – 1.6 MCI).
City have undoubtedly been the best team in the league this season, and the result and performance against Liverpool will likely prove to be a one off. With City averaging 2.3 xG per game this season, they will cause Manchester United problems as they bid to bounce back.
Manchester United Expected Goals (xG)
Manchester United beat Swansea last time out to register their fourth straight Premier League win. They created good chances in that game - as they have done often of late - while also limiting their opponents to very few opportunities (xG: MUN 1.8 – 0.2 SWA).
That win moved them 12 points clear of fifth-placed Chelsea, with Infogol calculating that the Red Devils have all-but confirmed their place in the top four (99%). Instead, their main aim in this match will be to stop City winning the league on Saturday.
Jose Mourinho’s side may struggle, though, unless they continue to improve their process. They have only been the sixth-best team in the league so far this season, with an expected goal difference per game of just 0.4. Compare that to Manchester City’s 1.5, and it becomes obvious as to how far behind their neighbours United really are.
The bookies look to have priced this game up incorrectly. Betfair give City just a 50% chance of winning, so with Infogol predicting a City win 67% of the time, there is great value in backing a home win at 19/20.
Manchester City to win @ 19/20