Liverpool vs Tottenham: Tottenham’s away troubles against the top 6 expected to continue
The big Premier League match of the weekend takes place at Anfield, with Liverpool hosting Tottenham in a game that could be have huge repercussions in the race to finish in the top four. Our Analyst previews the game, using underlying expected goals (xG) data to produce the best bets.
Jurgen Klopp’s men have had a rough time of late, losing to Swansea before being knocked out of the FA Cup by West Brom, but they bounced back when beating Huddersfield 3-0 in midweek.
Liverpool consistently generate a lot of good chances and have the second best attack in the league (54.3 xG), behind only Manchester City, and this appears to have continued despite the departure of Philippe Coutinho.
The Reds moved into third place after the midweek results, two points above Spurs, and have performed impressively in all of their home games against other top four opponents; 4-0 win against Arsenal, 0-0 with Man Utd, 1-1 with Chelsea and a 4-3 win over Manchester City. Another good performance is expected.
Tottenham’s tough run of games began well with a 2-0 win over Manchester United at Wembley on Wednesday. They got off to the best possible start, Christian Eriksen scoring after just 11 seconds which put them in the driving seat. They weren’t at their best in that game (1.7 – 1.2 xG), but were better on the day than Manchester United.
Spurs are now unbeaten in seven league games after that win, which saw Mauricio Pochettino’s team move to within two points of the top four. They have generated 16.9 xG in their seven match unbeaten run, averaging 2.4 xG per game which is some feat.
However, Spurs have had a problem away from home against their top six rivals; losing 1-0 to Manchester United, 2-0 to Arsenal and 4-1 to Manchester City, a similar set of results to last season. It seems to be a recurring issue for Spurs, and one that may continue in this match.
Both teams to score @ 4/7
Both teams have created a host of chances all season, and are the second and fourth best attacking teams in the league – both teams are expected to hit the net.
Liverpool to win @ 11/10
Liverpool seem to raise their game when the top teams visit Anfield, while Spurs’ seem to do the opposite on their travels to top six sides, so the hosts look good value to win here.