Expect goals at Anfield: Liverpool vs Manchester City Champions League Preview

Liverpool take on Manchester City in an all-English Champions League quarter-final on Wednesday, with an entertaining game in prospect. Infogol’s Analyst previews the big game, using expected goals (xG) to generate the best bets.

Liverpool Expected Goals (xG)

Liverpool’s preparations for this game concluded with a victory against Crystal Palace at the weekend, one in which they were fully tested and were fortunate to get all three points according to chances created (xG: CRY 2.0 – 1.8 LIV).

Their Champions League journey so far has been very comfortable, thrashing teams in the group stage and deserving to come top, and then drawing Porto and dispatching them 5-0 on aggregate (2 Leg xG: LIV 4.4 – 1.0 POR).

Liverpool were rampant at Porto

They have racked up 23.7 xG in their eight Champions League group games so far, averaging nearly 3 xG per game, so are expected to create plenty of chances in both legs. Liverpool’s issue continues to be defensively, though, and they need to be at their best to keep this City team out.

Manchester City Expected Goals (xG)

Manchester City are just one win away from the Premier League title, so can prioritise the Champions League. They were in scintillating form once again at the weekend, beating Everton 3-1, good preparation for this game (xG: EVE 1.1 – 1.6 MCI).

City’s Champions League route, like Liverpool’s, has been rather comfortable up to now, blitzing their group before a 5-2 aggregate win over Basel. That scoreline didn’t tell the whole story though, as City created very little by their standards (2 Leg xG: MCI 2.2 – 1.5 BAS).

Man City weren't at their best against Basel

They will have bad memories of Anfield, having lost their unbeaten league record there earlier in the season, conceding four goals in a 4-3 defeat. One thing is for sure, though, they will attack Liverpool. While that may leave them vulnerable, they can hurt the Reds.

 

Conclusion

Two of the best attacking sides in Europe face off at Anfield, and though it is a fairly short price, over 2.5 goals still looks good value. City are the better of the two teams, and they are fancied to take a first leg lead and exploit Liverpool’s weaker defence.

 

Recommended Bets:

Over 2.5 Goals @ 4/6

Manchester City to win @ 7/5

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