Mitrovic to score again: Fulham vs QPR
In-form Fulham take on QPR in a West London derby in the EFL Championship’s early Saturday kick off. Infogol’s Analyst previews the big game, using expected goals to assess both teams generate the best bets.
Fulham Expected Goals (xG)
Fulham’s late charge shows no sign of stopping. A win against Preston last weekend took their unbeaten run to 15 matches, winning 13 of them. They are hitting top gear towards the end of the season once again, just as they did last year, and look certain for at least a play-off place.
That win against Preston last time out was a deserved one (xG: PNE 0.7 – 1.3 FUL), but they left it late to snatch the three points. They have unsurprisingly over-performed during this 15 match unbeaten run, scoring 37 goals when expected to score closer to 27, but have still been streets ahead of everyone other than Wolves.
The acquisition of Aleksandar Mitrovic looks to have been a shrewd one, with the Slovakian striker netting seven times in his last five matches. He is averaging 0.7 xG per 90 minutes since he arrived at Fulham, and should have a say in this match.
QPR Expected Goals (xG)
QPR gained an unexpected three points in midweek as they beat Aston Villa away from home 3-1. They were fortunate to come away with a win in that game though, as they were extremely clinical and fortunate to score three goals from the chances they created (xG: AST 1.5 – 0.6 QPR).
That was their second successive win, as they look to finish the season strongly. Ian Holloway’s side are set for another mid-table finish, and they are currently where they are expected to be based on their performances.
They have been relatively strong defensively all season, conceding an average of 1.3 xG per game, with their main issue being in attack where they have averaged 1.2 xG. This will be a much tougher test than recent matches, and they may find themselves out-gunned against a very good attacking team.
Fulham are expected to win this and continue their incredible run of form, and the 5/4 about Fulham to win and over 2.5 goals represents value. Aleksandar Mitrovic has scored first in four of Fulham’s last five matches, so at 4/1 he looks a good bet to do so again.
Mitrovic to score first @ 4/1
Fulham to win and over 2.5 goals @ 5/4