City to run riot at Goodison: Everton vs Manchester City Preview

Everton host Manchester City in the Premier League’s 17:30 kick off on Saturday, with the away side just two wins away from the Premier League title. Infogol’s Analyst uses expected goals (xG) to generate the best bets.

Everton remain defensively frail 

Everton Expected Goals (xG)

Everton made it back-to-back wins when beating Stoke away from home before the international break (xG: STO 0.9 – 3.0 EVE), their second impressive performance in a row, having beaten Brighton before that (xG: EVE 2.0 – 0.7 BRI).

Their underlying stats over the season haven’t been positive, though, as they have the third worst defence so far (50.6 xG). Conceding 1.6 xG per game against an average Premier League side doesn’t bode well as they face a team a lot better than average.

Infogol's Premier League Expected Goals (xG) table

Sam Allardyce’s team have the ability to create chances but are expected to struggle against the best defence in the league. They will have to be at their very best to get anything from the game, as they look set for a comfortable mid-table finish.

No stopping City

Manchester City Expected Goals (xG)

Manchester City are just two wins away from the Premier League title after a 2-0 victory against Stoke last time out, another game in which they generated many more chances than their opponents (xG: STO 0.2 – 1.7 MCI).

Pep Guardiola’s side continue to break records and have been generating 2.4 xG per game over the season.

Manchester City's goal times - taken from the free Infogol app

This City team have scored the first goal in 24 of their 30 matches, with the average minute that goal has been scored in being the 28th. They have scored 64% of their total goals in the second half, so combining both pieces of information suggests that they take an early lead and step on the gas when teams get tired.

 

Conclusion

Manchester City are rightly favourites to win this game, and the 5/6 on offer of City to win convincingly (win and over 2.5 goals) looks the way to go. Given the timings of how City have scored their goals, 15/8 for them to win both halves looks great value.

 

Recommended Bets:

Manchester City to win and over 2.5 goals @ 5/6

Manchester City to win both halves @ 15/8

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