EFL Championship Sunday Preview: Few goals in East Anglia, Bristol City to win

There are two games on Sunday in the EFL Championship, with the East Anglia derby between Norwich and Ipswich kicking things off before Leeds host Bristol City. Infogol’s Analyst generates the best bets for both games using expected goals.

 

 

Norwich vs Ipswich

Sunday 12:00 GMT

The second East Anglian derby of the season takes place on Sunday, as Norwich host Ipswich, with both sides level on 44 points after 31 matches.

Norwich have lost only one of their last eight matches, winning five, and were very unlucky not to beat high-flying Derby in their last game, where they conceded very few chances (NOR 2.2 – 0.3 DER xG). However, according to Infogol’s xG table, they are where they deserve to be based on performances this season, with their main struggle being creating chances (37.4 xG) – which has been evident in their last 8 games (8.6 xG).

Ipswich had a hot start to the season, but were out-performing their underlying xG stats to an unsustainable level, so it’s not a surprise that they have dropped out of play-off contention. They have been the 22nd best team according to Infogol’s xG, with an xGD of -14.4, and have really struggled to create chances on a regular basis. That was the case last time out against Burton (IPS 0.3 – 0.6 BUR xG), hardly adding to their seasonal total of 30.3 xG which is the second worst in the league.

This derby features two teams that struggle to create chances and is expected to be a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 looking a surprisingly good price given the attacking struggles of both teams.

Leeds vs Bristol City

Sunday 16:30 GMT

Paul Heckingbottom’s reign as Leeds manager didn’t get off to the best of starts, as his new side were deservedly beaten 2-1 by Sheffield United, once again struggling with chance creation (LEE 0.9 – 1.6 SHU xG).

They are now winless in seven games, a run that has seen them slip eight points behind the play-off places, having failed to generate more than 1 xG in four of those matches.

Sixth-placed Bristol City aren’t in the best of form when you look at their results, winning just one of their last seven matches. They blew a three goal lead against struggling Sunderland last weekend, though they were unlucky, as they really impressed with the chances they created (BRC 3.5 – 1.9 SUN xG). They have the fifth best attack this season, according to xG (45.3), and could take some stopping in this game.

Bristol City have the better firepower of these two sides, and look a good price at 13/8 to get the win in this match, further denting Leeds’ play-off hopes.

 

Recommended bets:

Under 2.5 goals in Norwich vs Ipswich @ 8/11

Bristol City to beat Leeds @ 13/8

 

Recent blog entries