Championship GW10 Review
With ten matches down in the Championship, Cardiff sit top with Sheffield United the surprise package in second place after both won in midweek. Bolton remain winless, while Sunderland are struggling. Infogol’s Analyst reviews the midweek action, assessing performances and not just results using expected goals (xG).
Norwich made it five games unbeaten with a 1-0 away win over Middlesbrough in GW10, though this was the most ‘unfair’ result of the game-week. They have now kept a clean-sheet for five straight games, but the chance of this happening from the chances they have conceded in that time is just 1.5%. At the Riverside, they scored early from a low-probability chance and managed to hold off the Boro attack to get an unlikely win.
Nottingham Forest have now lost five of their last six matches in the league, after a 3-1 defeat to Fulham, though it was a much improved performance from Mark Warburton’s team. They were unfortunate to come away empty handed after a strong attacking display in which they created a lot of good chances. If they keep performing in this fashion, the results will come.
Millwall gained another home win after coming from a goal down against Reading to win 2-1. They scored two goals in the last 10 minutes, both from low-probability chances, and were fortunate to come away with all three points.
Aston Villa continued their great run of form, winning their third straight game. They are unbeaten in seven after a 4-0 thrashing of Burton, and though they deserved the win, the scoreline was harsh. Their city neighbours Birmingham ended a winless run of seven matches by beating Sheffield Wednesday 1-0 in what was a tight encounter.
Brentford drew 1-1 with Derby, though Derby generated very few scoring opportunities. Sheffield United continued their great run of form with a 2-0 win at home to Wolves, though the visitors had to play with 10-men for over 75 minutes. Preston also extended their good run by edging out Hull 2-1 in what was a close match. Alex Neil’s team are now unbeaten in seven matches and sit fifth in the table.
Ipswich are now the league’s top scorers after a deserved 5-2 win over struggling Sunderland, a game in which they created a lot of high-probability scoring opportunities. Barnsley and QPR shared the spoils with a 1-1 draw in a game of few chances, while Cardiff moved to the top of the table with a deserved 3-1 win over Leeds and Bristol City heaped more misery on Bolton with a comfortable 2-0 win.
GW11 Team to Back – Cardiff
Cardiff continue to look strong and are generating a lot of good chances. They host Derby in GW11, with the Rams struggling for form and finding it difficult to create many scoring opportunities. At a price of Evens, the home team look a good bet.