Brazil Serie A GW9 Review
With GW9 coming to an end in midweek, Infogol’s Analyst reviews the action from Brazil’s Serie A, looking at performances and not just results using expected goals (xG). Includes a Team to Watch for GW10.
Actual vs Expected Goal Totals for GW9
The top two, Corinthians and Gremio, both registered comfortable home wins in game week nine (GW9). Corinthians were dominant in a lively encounter with Bahia, running out 3-0 winners in what was one of their best attacking performances of the season. Gremio managed to break down a resolute Coritiba team to ensure they stay hot on the tails of Corinthians – especially ahead of their crunch match in GW10.
Flamengo continued their good form with another great display, this time against Chapecoense, as they ran out 5-1 winners. They created 2.75 xG in that match, a season high for Mengão, as they made light work of one of the leagues best defensive units so far this season.
Flamengo finding form
There were home wins also for Ponte Preta and Palmeiras, who beat Cruzeiro and Atletico Goianiense respectively – both with a 1-0 score line. Ponte Preta were slightly fortunate but needed a penalty to secure the three points in what was a game of very few open play chances. Palmeiras welcomed back important players for their win over Goianiense, with one of them – Miguel Borja – netting the winner. They appear to be picking up form after a slow start, and their performances are definitely improving.
Fluminense ended a four match winless run by beating Avai away from home in GW9, a game in which they created some good chances and took advantage of goalkeeping error to allow Henrique Dourado to open the scoring and get his ninth goal of the season.
Leading scorer: Dourado Nine goals in Nine matches
Atletico Mineiro’s early season frustrations continued with a 2-2 draw against Sport Recife, a game in which they once again created very few chances – just 0.6 xG. They were again resorting to shooting from low-quality chances rather than trying to create better opportunities, something they will need to improve on if they are to begin moving up the table.
There were fortunate home wins for Botafogo and Atletico Paranaense in GW9, both winning their matches after creating few chances. Infogol calculates that Botafogo had just a 1% chance of scoring the three they did in this match, scoring from very low-probability efforts. Vasco created the better of the chances, but their troubles on their travels continue.
Percentage chance of scoring (x): Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama
Paranense won 1-0 for the third successive match in midweek, beating Sao Paulo thanks to another early goal and ‘hold-on’ defensive performance. They scored in the fourth minute and weathered a continuous storm to hold on for another much-needed three points. Sao Paulo were slightly unlucky to come away empty handed, with Infogol calculating they had a 78% chance of avoiding defeat, but they once again struggled to created ‘quality’ chances, instead racking up xG numbers with ‘quantity’.
Sao Paulo’s attacking struggles vs Paranaense
Santos were the other fortunate winners in GW9, beating Vitoria 2-0 in Salvador. The xG figures show Vitoria as the more likely winners, but that includes a late missed penalty – take that away and Santos were still slightly lucky to come away with the three points. They are hitting some good form now, and have won four of their last five matches to climb up to third in the table.
GW10 Team to Watch – Palmeiras
Palmeiras look to be finding some much better form and are upwardly mobile, creating some good chances in recent games. They are the team to watch this week, and have a tricky game away at Ponte Preta, but are expected to get the win.