Brazil Serie A GW8 Review

After the weekend’s action, Infogol’s Analyst reviews game week eight (GW8) in Brazil’s Serie A, looking at performances and not just results, to establish who deserved their result and who may have been fortunate. Includes a Team to Watch for GW9.



Actual vs Expected Goal Totals for GW8 


Corinthians remain top after a goalless draw away at Coritiba, in a game which they were frustrated and once again struggled to create any clear-cut chances. Still though, they find themselves unbeaten after eight matches in what has been a very good start for Fabio Carille’s team. There was one other goalless draw in GW8, as Santos and Ponte Preta shared the spoils, with neither team doing enough to deserve the three points.


Vasco da Gama provided the only home win of GW8, as they won to nil against Avai – as forecast in the Match Preview. It was a deserved win as they created some good chances while conceding very few, with Pikachu the match winner striking just before half-time to earn the victory.


There were tight away wins for Atletico Mineiro and Palmeiras, who beat Sao Paolo and Bahia respectively. Atletico Mineiro did just enough to deserve the three points, with a late Rafael Moura strike earning a 2-1 victory, while Palmeiras were nervy with a 3-2 lead before Willian ended his long scoring drought to ease the tension. Both these games were tight in-terms of expected goals (xG), but both winners were deserved.


Much needed: Mineiro get three points 


Botafogo secured an away win by beating Chapecoense 2-0, ending a four match winless run in the process. Botafogo created very few chances in terms of quantity, but the ones they did generate were of a high-quality.


Quantity vs Quality: Botafogo creating few, but quality chances


Vitoria were also winners on the road, beating Sport Recife 3-1 in a game with some suspect defending. They were deserved winners, and put in their best attacking performance of the season to date, generating 2.71 xG.


Game-week eight (GW8) team to watch Atletico Goianiense were beaten by Atletico Paranaense 1-0 in Goias. They were unfortunate to lose though, as they once again generated a lot of good chances, but failed to take advantage, with a missed penalty proving costly. That was Atletico Paranaense’s second successive 1-0 win, as they aim to climb the table after a slow start.


Fluminense suffered derby heart-break against Flamengo as they conceded a 95th minute equaliser in what was a rather dramatic and scrappy match.


Flu-Fla derby drama


Flamengo can count themselves fortunate to get a point from that match, as Flu created the better chances, with Infogol calculating they had a 60% chance of securing all three points from chances created. 


The performance of the week came from Gremio in their match against Cruzeiro. The game ended in a 3-3 draw, with all six goals before the 65th minute, and it was the visitors Gremio who created the better chances. They generated 3.60 xG in what was their best attacking display of the season, while conceding only 1.11.


Dominant: shot-map of Cruzeiro vs Gremio


They were unfortunate not to pick up all three points, with Infogol calculating an 82% chance of this happening from chances created. And with Cruzeiro calculated to have just a 10.2% chance of scoring three from their chances, it looks as though Gremio were unlucky in this match.  


GW9 Team to WatchGremio 


After this excellent attacking performance without getting their rewards, Gremio are this week’s team to watch. They are leading the way in expected goals for (xGF), expected goal difference (xGD) and expected points (xPoints) from their performances in matches so far this season, and are expected to continue this in GW9.





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