Brazil Serie A GW23 Review
Infogol’s Analyst reviews the weekend’s action from Brazil’s Serie A, using exected goals (xG) to assess performances and not just results to paint a clearer picture of the week’s matches, including selecting a Team to Back next time.
Sport Recife’s 1-0 defeat at home to Avai was the most ‘unfair’ result of the week, and one of the most ‘unfair’ results of the season so far. Sport Recife created a host of chances in what was their best attacking display of the season. They generated 3.33 xG without scoring, just a 3.6% chance of this happening, while Avai rarely threatened going forward. Avai’s process has been like this of late, and if it continues, don’t expect them to continue picking up points.
Atletico Paranaense and Atletico Mineiro both drew 1-1 in GW22, being held by Coritiba and Palmeiras respectively. Both Paranaense and Mineiro were unfortunate not to get all three points, as both created a host of chances – over 3 xG. Ponte Preta were also unfortunate to draw with Sao Paulo, as they conceded very few chances in a game that finished 2-2.
Santos and Botafogo both picked up 2-0 wins at home, beating Corinthians and Flamengo respectively. They were both deserved winners, creating plenty of chances against good opposition. Corinthians lead at the top of the table is still seven points, but they have lost three of their last four matches.
Vitoria drew with Fluminense in what was an exciting game which had plenty of late drama, but was a fair result. As was Cruzeiro’s 2-1 win over Chapecoense, Atletico Goianiense 1-1 draw with Bahia and Vasco’s 1-0 win over Gremio.
GW24 Team to Back – Atletico Paranaense
Atletico PR have been playing well of late, and were incredibly unlucky not to get all three points after a very impressive performance against Coritiba. They host an inconsistent Fluminense side, and Paranaense look good value to get the win at Evs.