Brazil GW21 Review

GW21 of Brazil’s Serie A came to an end with an entertaining match on Monday, and as ever there were plenty of talking points. Using expected goals (xG), Infogol’s Analyst takes a look at the action, assessing performances and not just results. The Analyst will aim to paint a clearer picture of the week’s matches, including selecting a Team to Back for GW22.


Actual vs Expected Goal (xG) totals GW21 


The most ‘unfair’ result of GW21 took place at Corinthians Arena, where the league leaders were beaten for the first time this season. They lost 1-0 to a struggling Vitoria side, in a game which they were dominant from start to finish. Corinthians were very unfortunate to come away empty handed, conceding just 0.35 xG, and creating a host of chances themselves, but having out-performed their expected goals by a long way so far this season, this was bound to happen at some point. They remain with a healthy cushion at the top of the table though, and still in prime position to win the title.


Botafogo were also very unlucky in GW21, as they were beaten 2-1 by Ponte Preta. Botafogo put on their best attacking display of the season in this match, creating a lot of high-quality scoring opportunities totalling 3.15 xG. They had an 82% chance of scoring more than the one they did, so Ponte Preta can count themselves lucky to come away with the three points.


Botafogo unlucky to lose – Shot Map 


Palmeiras were beaten at home by Chapecoense, and while the visitors created the better chances, a 2-0 score line was a little harsh. Bahia deservedly beat Vasco da Gama, though it was the same story for Bahia, the 3-0 score line was harsh on Vasco.


GW20 Team to Back Cruzeiro got the job done with a comfortable victory, and another good performance as well. They have been the most impressive side in recent weeks. Goalless draws between Coritiba and Santos, and Gremio and Atletico Paranaense were deserved results, with none of the teams creating a lot of high-quality scoring opportunities.


Fluminense did enough to beat Atletico Mineiro on Monday, a 2-1 score line in which the league’s leading scorer Henrique Dourado got both goals for Flu. Vinicius Junior also got a brace to fire Flamengo to a 2-0 win over Atletico Goianiense, while Avai and Sao Paulo shared the spoils in the ‘fairest’ result of the weekend.


Dourado at the double for Flu 


GW22 Team to BackFluminense

Fluminense got a much needed win over Atletico Mineiro last time out, a result that moved them into the top half of the table. They created good chances, and with Dourado back on the goal trail, they look good value to at 4/5 to beat an out of form Vasco da Gama.


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