Brazil Serie A GW18 Review
GW18 of Brazil’s Serie A has come to an end, with some dominant performances by certain teams. Using expected goals (xG), Infogol’s Analyst takes a look at the action, assessing performances and not just results. The Analyst will aim to paint a clearer picture of the week’s matches, including selecting a Team to Watch for GW19.
Actual vs Expected Goal (xG) totals GW18
Corinthians maintained their eight point advantage thanks to a dominant victory over Atletico Mineiro. They won 2-0 in Belo Horizonte, and were good value for that win, creating 2.2 xG with Jo getting on the scoresheet once again.
Cruzeiro also earned three points on their travels thanks to a dominant display of their own, beating Vasco da Gama 3-0. They have been performing well for some time now, and have been unfortunate not to have picked up more points than they have.
Cruzeiro kicking into gear
There were tight, but deserved wins for Palmeiras and Santos, who beat Botafogo and Flamengo respectively. There wasn’t much between the two teams in either game, but the victors shaded proceedings, in terms of xG, to earn the victories.
Vitoria and Atletico Paranaense both registered home wins in emphatic style. Vitoria beat Ponte Preta 3-1 thanks to one of their best performances of the season to date in which they raced to 3-0 half-time lead. Atletico Paranaense beat lowly Avai 5-0 in what was also their best performance of the season to date. They generated 3.09 xG, so were slightly fortunate to hit the net five times, but were worthy winners.
Atletico Paranaense finding their groove
Gremio kept up with Corinthians thanks to a narrow 1-0 win at bottom club Atletico Goianiense, a game in which they needed a late winner to keep their good form going. Chapecoense and Bahia shared the spoils in a 1-1 draw, as neither team created many chances.
The two fortunate results came in matches between Sport Recife and Fluminense, and Sao Paulo and Coritiba.
Sport Recife were held 2-2 by Fluminense, and they can count themselves as unlucky not to get all three points as they created the better of the chances. Fluminense generated just 0.63 xG, with just a 13.1% chance they would score two goals. Sport continue to perform very well, and are a team to keep an eye on in the coming weeks.
Sao Paulo were beaten by Coritiba 2-1 in GW18, though they were exceptionally unfortunate. They generated 3.7 xG, their best of the season so far, with Infogol calculating that they had an 88.4% chance of scoring more than the one they did. Once again they showcased an improvement in performance, and they should continue to get better as the season progresses.
Unlucky Sao Paulo – shot map vs Coritiba
GW19 Team to Watch – Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro have been really impressive in recent weeks, performing at a consistent level and finally got a result that their performance deserved in beating Vasco in GW18. They host Botafogo, who have struggled of late, and Cruzeiro are definitely the team to watch in GW19.