Back goals at Anfield and Old Trafford: The best bets for Premier League TV action

There is plenty of Premier League action live on TV this weekend, with two games on Saturday and two on Sunday. Our Analyst previews all four, using expected goals (xG) to generate the best bets.

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Cagey game at St Mary’s

Southampton vs Chelsea

Sat 12.30 GMT

Live on Sky Sports Premier League

Kicking off the action at St Mary’s are two teams who are bang out of form. Southampton are in trouble approaching the final stages of the season, with a 3-2 defeat at Arsenal last time out leaving them three points from safety.

They were unlucky to come away from the Emirates empty handed, though, as their performance warranted more (xG: ARS 1.6 – 2.0 SOU). They are actually very unfortunate to be embroiled in a relegation battle, as based on performances this season, they have been the ninth best team.

Chelsea continue to be inconsistent in both performances and results, and have won just one of their last five league games. They were held to a 1-1 draw by West Ham last weekend, a result that will give Southampton confidence, but Chelsea’s performance was good and they were unfortunate not to win (xG: CHE 2.3 – 0.3 WHU).

The Blues will now be looking over their shoulders, as sixth-placed Arsenal are only three points behind them, while Southampton need points, with Infogol calculating that they have a 47% chance of going down. A cagey game is expected, with few goals as a result.

Plenty of goals at Anfield

Liverpool vs Bournemouth

Sat 17.30 GMT

Live on BT Sport 1

Liverpool got the job done in fine style in the Champions League in midweek, winning 2-1 at the Etihad and 5-1 on aggregate. It’s fair to say that Jurgen Klopp’s decision to rest players in the Merseyside derby last weekend paid off – though they were still the better team in that game (xG: EVE 0.6 – 1.1 LIV).

They have been the second best team in the league this season, and have the second best attacking output, generating 69.5 xG in their 33 matches – averaging just over 2.1 xG per game. They will be looking forward to playing a Bournemouth team that has shown frailties at the back.

The Cherries have made a habit of scoring late goals in recent weeks, including against West Brom, Watford and Crystal Palace. In the latter two matches, those goals have earned them deserved points based on performances (xG: WAT 0.8 – 2.3 BOU, BOU 2.1 – 1.3 CRY).

Despite recent good performances, Eddie Howe’s team have been fortunate over the course of the season, and should be closer to the relegation zone. They have the second worst defensive record this season, conceding 57.8 xG in 33 matches, and this, coupled with Liverpool’s attacking threat, suggests goals will be prevalent.

Infogol's Premier League xG table

Arsenal look good value

Newcastle vs Arsenal

Sun 13.30 GMT

Live on Sky Sports Premier League

Newcastle come into this game on the back of three straight wins, a run which Infogol calculates clears the Magpies of any relegation threat (0% chance of going down). Victories against Southampton and Huddersfield were well deserved based on chances created, for all their latest win against Leicester was a fortunate one.

In that game, Rafa Benitez’s side generated just 0.4 xG and scored two goals - just a 6% chance of this happening. They have averaged 1.6 xG against per game this season, and while they have posed a greater attacking threat in recent weeks, they remain vulnerable in defence.

Arsenal’s win over Southampton last weekend was their third straight success in the league, a run that has moved them within three points of fifth-placed Chelsea. Infogol calculates that they have an 18% chance of overhauling their London rivals and earning group stage qualification to the Europa League.

While Arsenal were slightly fortunate to beat Southampton (xG: ARS 1.6 – 2.0 SOU), Arsene Wenger did choose to rest players. The Gunners have been the fourth best attacking team in the league this season (62.4 xG), and look a good price to continue their winning streak.

United to add to Baggies woes

Manchester United vs West Brom

Sun 16.00 GMT

Live on Sky Sports Premier League

Manchester United spoiled their neighbour’s party last weekend, coming from 2-0 down to win 3-2 and deny Manchester City the opportunity to wrap up the title there and then. United were very clinical with their finishing, but were also very fortunate that City weren’t, as the chances their opponents created were far superior (xG: MCI 3.0 – 1.2 MUN).

That was United’s fifth straight win in the league – beating Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester City in that run – to all-but wrap up a top four finish. Jose Mourinho’s side have been more attack-minded in recent weeks, and will be looking to put West Brom to the sword here.

On the face of it, West Brom have had an awful season. They sit bottom of the table and 10 points from safety with just five games remaining, with Infogol giving them no chance of survival. However, in terms of performances and process, West Brom have actually been the 10th best team in the league.

They have won just two points from their last 10 matches, but their performances have warranted closer to 11 points - had their results matched their performances, they may still haven been in with a chance of survival. As it is, they look doomed, and this is one of the last places they would want to go. Expect goals at Old Trafford.

 

Recommended Bets:

Southampton vs Chelsea - Back Under 2.5 goals @ 4/5

Liverpool vs Bournemouth - Back Over 3.5 goals @ 11/10

Newcastle vs Arsenal - Back Arsenal to win @ 21/20

Manchester United vs West Brom - Back Over 2.5 goals @ 4/6

 

Acca pays around 13/1

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