Atletico Paranaense vs Vitoria: Betting Preview

Atletico Paranaense vs Vitoria betting tips. Two teams in the bottom half of Serie A meet in GW10, with Atletico Paranaense coming into this game in good form having won their last three. Infogol’s Analyst takes a look at the game, using unique stats and data points to select the best bets.



Atletico Paranaense


Atletico Paranaense had a very slow start to the season, picking up just two points from their first six matches, a run which saw them sink to the bottom of the table. In their last three matches though, they have picked up maximum points, and look to be on the up after three resolute displays.


 Atletico PR on the up  


Though their results have improved in recent matches, their performances remain questionable, with PR sitting behind the ball and defending what they have got. Their last three wins have all been by a 1-0 score line, and have all been games in which they have weathered storms from the opposition to capture the three points.


PR have an aggregate goal difference +3 in their last three matches, but an expected goal difference (xGD) of -2.1, suggesting they have been fortunate to get the results they have. Their first win came away at Atletico Mineiro where they were reduced to 10-men in the first half, forcing them to play defensively and absorb pressure, and it paid off as they capitalised on a Mineiro error to score a very late winner.


Percentage chance of Atletico PR conceding no goals in their last three matches: 0.5% 


Another away win followed in which they scored in the fourth minute against Atletico Goianiense. Again they managed to hold out, surviving a penalty in the process, to scoop another three points. Their most recent win was probably their best, again scoring in the fourth minute and holding on to win, this time against Sao Paulo. They once again weathered a storm, but what was impressive about this match was how PR limited Sao Paulo to low-probability chances, meaning they had a greater chance of keeping a clean-sheet and winning the match.


Defensive performance vs Sao Paulo: Sao Paulo had 28 shots equating to just 1.58 xG 


It appears as though Paranense are very good at this – forcing teams to shoot from distance and making it hard for teams to create big chances. For this reason, they are a team to keep an eye on going forward.




Vitoria also made a poor start to the season, picking up just one point from their opening five matches, but looked to have turned things around after winning seven points from their following three matches.


They were beaten by Santos in midweek to end this good run, but it was another game in which their performance was promising, as they continue to improve. Despite this, they find themselves in the bottom four after nine matches, and need results fast.


Vitoria need results: Actual vs Expected table (on the app) 


As stated before, their performances have improved in recent weeks, creating plenty of good chances in matches, with their best performance coming against Sport Recife in which they generated 2.71 xG in a 3-1 win.


Vitoria have shown promise in matches this season 


They have shown a potential defensive frailty in matches so far this season, and usually give teams at least one high-quality chance in every match this season – and this is all Paranaense need.




With Atletico Paranaense looking strong as a defensive unit, although the chance of them keeping three successive clean sheets were just 0.5%, and the fact they tend to concede only low-quality chances, means that Vitoria are expected to find it tough to break them down.



Atletico Paranaense to win @ 8/11

Under 2.5 goals @ 8/11 

Atletico Paranaense to win to nil @ 17/10




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