Wolves to edge tight derby: Aston Villa vs Wolves
Promotion hopefuls Aston Villa host leaders Wolves in the EFL Championship’s late Saturday kick off, and Infogol’s Analyst has used expected goals to preview the game and generate the best bets.
Aston Villa Expected Goals (xG)
Aston Villa continue to impress as we head towards the business end of the season, having won nine of their last 11 league games. Their latest victory was a deserved one against bottom side Sunderland (xG: SUN 0.8 – 2.0 AST) to keep themselves hot on the heels of Cardiff in the race for automatic promotion.
They create a lot of good chances in matches and have done all season, averaging 1.5 xG per game, the seventh highest average in the league.
Villa have looked vulnerable in defence throughout this run, and especially against Barnsley (2.2 xG), Burton (1.4 xG), Fulham (1.2 xG) and Sheffield Wednesday (1.4 xG) – three of which are in the bottom eight, and if they struggle to contain those sides, they won’t be looking forward to facing Wolves.
Wolves Expected Goals (xG)
Wolves were really impressive in midweek, thrashing Leesd 3-0 at Elland Road (xG: LEE 0.3 – 2.6 WOL), suggesting that any theories that Wolves were struggling to handle the pressure were very premature.
As a matter of fact, they deserved to win two of those games – vs Preston (xG: PRE 0.4 – 1.3 WOL) and vs Norwich (xG: WOL 1.3 – 0.9 NOR), with only Fulham getting the better of the league leaders (xG: FUL 1.6 – 1.0 WOL). So according to xG, their performances warranted more than the results they got during this ‘poor’ spell.
The bottom line is that Wolves are by far the best team in the league; they have the best attack (60.8 xG) and create a host of chances on a regular basis, and this isn’t expected to change against Aston Villa.
Wolves are expected to prove too strong for Aston Villa in this match, and can tighten their grip on the Championship title.
Wolves win @ 6/4