A Guide to Using Infogol

Analyst Verdict
If the Infogol predicted outcome is not deemed to be ‘Value’, then the Infogol Analyst will suggest an alternative market for the match based on simulations of the match using team ratings. The number of footballs, on a scale of 1-5 (with 5 being high), that accompany the verdict represent the ‘Value’ this selection offers.
Bad Boy
The player(s) from that team with the worst disciplinary record in that competition, based on number of yellow and/or red cards received.
Both Teams to Score
If you make a “Both Teams to Score” bet then this is successful if both teams score during the match (90 minutes only).
Expected Goals
Expected Goals is a metric which estimates the quality of a chance given a number of variables which include things like shot location, shot type, etc. A team may have created several clear cut chances and failed to score – expected goals looks at the chances and uses this to assess teams and their performances, which is more reliable than raw goals and results.
Use the Filters on the Tips screen to customise your view. Choose what you would like to see from the Prediction, Analyst Verdict and Value selections (all three are set to On as default).
Flags is the collective term given to the helpful visual icons that appear in InfoGol. They include Goal Fest, Snore Bore, Strong Home Team and Poor Away Team.
The number of footballs alongside the both the Value selections and Analyst Verdicts represents the level of ‘Value’ in the selection at the time of publishing. The level of Value is based on the discrepancy between the Infogol models probabilities and the odds available.
Goal Fest
A match in which the InfoGol model predicts that there will be more than 2.5 goals.
League Position (Actual)
The league position that team currently occupies in that competition. League tables are updated at the end of each day.
League Position (Expected)
The Expected League position is the position a team ‘deserves’ to be in given their performances thus far. The Infogol model assesses the chances a team creates and concedes in each match and simulates the chance of getting each result to estimate the number of points they could expect to get given their performances.
League Position (Forecast)
The Forecast League position is the position a team is predicted to finish in at the end of the season. It uses the past results and points accrued combined with simulations of all remaining matches.
The starting line-up for the match as supplied by Opta, which will appear when available.
The Goal Attempts Map shows the chances a team created, with the size of the circle corresponding to the probability of the chance being scoring – the larger the circle the greater the probability (the better the chance). The Goals Map shows where and when the goal was scored.
Match Events
A summary of the key events that have taken place in the match – Goals, Substitutions, Cards etc.
Match List Screen
The Match List Screen is the InfoGol App homepage. You can navigate around that day’s matches, look at those that have taken place or are yet to be played. Customise your view by tapping the Settings button – you can choose to see the Infogol Predicted % Chance for each match outcome, the Match Odds, or Nothing.
Match Odds
Betfair Sportsbook Odds that either are or recently were available to place a bet on a given event occurring. Please check the available price before placing your bets and consult the full terms & conditions of the odds provider if necessary.
Over 2.5 Goals
If you make an “Over 2.5 goals” bet then this is successful if there are 3 or more goals in the game (90 minutes only).
Poor Away Team
The team has a poor recent record when playing away from home in that competition.
Predicted % Chance
Visualisation of the probabilities of the three outcomes in a given match according to the Infogol model. Comparing the % chance against available odds a value bet can often be identified.
The most likely match outcome based on the InfoGol model.
Recent Matches
A team’s last 6 matches in all competitions displayed within the InfoGol app.
Smart Stats
Helpful hints about a team’s recent record.
Snore Bore
A match in which the Infogol model suggests there will be under 2.5 goals.
Strong Home Team
The team has a strong recent record when playing at home in this competition.
The Tips menu summarises the Infogol Prediction, Analyst Verdict and Value selections.
Top Scorer
The team’s top scorer(s) in that competition.
Under 2.5 Goals
If you make an “Under 2.5 goals” bet then this is successful if there are 2 goals or less in the game (90 minutes only).
The Value selection on the Tips menu represents an outcome where the available odds with the bookmaker are bigger then the probability of the outcome based on the Infogol model, with the number of footballs signifying the level of discrepancy.

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