Vasco da Gama vs Flamengo: Betting Preview

Vasco da Gama vs Flamengo betting tips. It’s one of the fiercest rivalries in Brazilian football, with Vasco and Flamengo meeting in the Clássico dos Milhões. Infogol’s Analyst takes a look at the game, using unique stats and data points to select the best bets.

 

 

Vasco da Gama

 

Vasco come into this huge match on the back of picking up their first away point of the season against Coritiba last time out, as they maintained their solid start to the season. The main reason for this solid start has been their home form, they have won five of their opening six home matches, with the majority of their good performances coming at Estádio São Januário.

  

Home Comforts: 94% of their points have come at home

 

According to Infogol’s model, they have the second best home record in the league so far this season, only bettered by Gremio, compared to the third worst away record. The divide in their performances and results has been huge, although it has to be said that the opposition they have faced on the road has been considerably stronger – an expected position average of 6.8 away from home, compared to 11.8 at home.

 

They have been creating more high-probability chances in their home matches, and that may have something to do with Luis Fabiano. The aging striker has been allowed to rest and recover in certain away matches this season, most recently their last match. He has been involved in every home game though, helping them generate 10.6 xG and hit the net 11 times. He has also scored 5 times himself in eight appearances – all in front of the raucous home crowd. 

 

Key Player: Fabiano

 

They are a very robust and hard-working team, and are deservedly in the top half after a solid start. They will provide a very stiff test for Flamengo in this match.

 

Flamengo

 

After a slow start to the season, Flamengo look to have finally started heading in the right direction. They won just one of their opening six matches in the Campeonato, though their performances perhaps deserved more. They have since won four of their last five league games and five straight wins in all competitions, beating Santos in the Copa do Brasil and going 5-2 ahead in the first leg of their Copa Sudamericana tie with Palestino. 

 

Things looking up for Flamengo after a slow start

 

They have been one of the best performers in the league away from home so far this season, second best in-fact after picking up nine points from a possible 18, a fair return from their performances. Flamengo are a very attacking team, and have shown that so far this season – accumulating the third most xG in the league.

 

As mentioned last week, Diego has been a key player so far this season for Flamengo, and he lived up to his billing by grabbing the second goal in their 2-0 win over Sao Paulo. He was given a break in midweek, so will be fresh in this match and hoping to have a big impact once again.

  

Key Player: Diego

 

Conclusion

 

An entertaining and feisty derby match is expected in Rio de Janeiro, with two teams in good form coming head-to-head. One of the best home teams vs one of the best away teams so far this season should see a tight game, and though there might be chances, expect a low-scoring encounter. Flamengo are expected to get the win though, and continue their charge up the table.

 

Bets

 

Under 2.5 @ 8/11

Flamengo win @ 1/1

Diego to score anytime @ 3/1

 

 

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