Three Bets at Three
The Infogol Analyst uses statistics and data to select the best bets in the 3pm kick-offs in the Premier League and Championship on Saturday, producing a hat-trick of tips.
Southampton vs Swansea
Southampton were unfortunate to finish the season such a long way off Everton in 7th based on their expected points total, their main problem being an ability to convert the chances they created, scoring 12 fewer than their xG total. Claude Puel was sacked at the end of the season, with fans apparently unhappy with the style of play, and Mauricio Pellegrino is the man tasked with improving on last season. Pellegrino has been playing Charlie Austin and Manolo Gabbiadini together in pre-season, suggesting entertaining, attack-minded football is on its way back to St Mary’s. Only Hull had a worst defence than Swansea last season, on both actual and expected goals conceded, and they haven’t strengthened much in that area over the summer. The Saints can get off to a good start and are rightly strong favourites to win the match, but over 2.5 goals at 11/10 look the best bet.
Best Bet: Over 2.5 Goals @ 11/10
Brentford v Forest
Brentford were unfortunate to lose on the opening day at Sheffield United, creating a lot of good chances without taking advantage. Last season Brentford were very consistent in carving out opportunities in front of goal and they look to have continued in the same vein, having kept hold of key players Jota and Vibe, who were two of the main contributors to their attacking output. Forest beat Millwall 1-0 in the season opener, but were very fortunate as they conceded a host of chances, resulting in a total of 3.14 expected goals (xG) in the worst defensive performance of last weekend. Brentford can exploit this frail defence and look a fair price at 4/5 to do so.
Best Bet: Brentford to win @ 4/5
Leeds vs Preston
Leeds got off to a great start in the Championship away at Bolton, winning 3-2, having had to weather a late barrage of Bolton pressure. Leeds created plenty of good chances, but they did look shaky at the back in periods of that game. They looked in need of bringing in more numbers in defence, which new manager Thomas Christiansen’s has done this week by signing Cameron Borthwick-Jackson on loan. Preston beat Sheffield Wednesday in their opening game, as they start a new season with a new manager also. Alex Neil is the man that has been brought in, and he looks to be playing attacking football as he did at Norwich. An entertaining game is expected, with Both Teams to Score looking a good bet at 9/10.
Best Bet: BTTS @ 9/10
Brentford to win @ 4/5
Over 2.5 Goals Southampton vs Swansea @ 11/10
BTTS Leeds vs Preston @ 9/10
You can back the Treble @ ~ 6/1 with the Betfair Sportsbook*
*Prices quoted correct at time of writing