Sao Paulo vs Santos Match Preview

Sao Paulo come into this game in good form, especially at home, while Santos are chasing the title and are only six points behind leaders Corinthians. Infogol’s Analyst will look at the two teams and their underlying stats to produce the best bet for the game.


Sao Paulo

Sao Paulo have moved themselves out of the relegation zone after three successive home wins, beating Flamengo in comfortable fashion last weekend. They conceded few chances in that game, something they have been doing more often of late.


They have generated 3.9 xG in their last three home matches, a drastic improvement on their early and mid-season form. They have improved defensively also conceding just one goal in their last three home games, with just 2.4 xG conceded in that time. While they haven’t been performing exceptionally well, they have been doing enough to deserve results.


Sao Paulo now looking up


They aren’t yet safe though, and need to maintain this level of performances and results to ensure their survival. Their home form is what will keep them up, making this another important game.



Santos come into this game in good form and are unbeaten in six matches in the league, a run that has moved them to within six points of leaders Corinthians. They edged out Atletico Goianiense last weekend in a comfortable 1-0 win, but they have been showing worrying signs of late.


In their unbeaten six game run they have conceded four goals, though have been very fortunate to do so having allowed 9 xG. Infogol calculates just a 5.5% chance that they would concede four from the chances they have conceded, suggesting that this good fortune is unsustainable.


Santos fortunate to be getting results they have


This defensive weakness is expected to catch up with them towards the end of the season, and they are expected concede more goals. Though they need to keep winning, they need to improve their defensive process.



Sao Paulo look the best bet to get the win in this game, as they look the better rounded team, with Santos’ vulnerable defence once again expected to concede high-quality chances.



Sao Paulo win @ 11/10


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