Santos vs Vasco da Gama Match Preview

With the Brazilian season coming to an end, there is still plenty to play for, especially for Santos and Vasco. Santos are just six points behind Corinthians heading into GW33, while Vasco are just a point behind Flamengo in their bid to secure a Copa Libertadores place. Infogol’s Analyst previews the game, using underlying stats to produce the best bets.

 

Santos

Santos find themselves six points behind leaders Corinthians with six games left to play, meaning they have a chance of snatching the title. They gained a much needed win against Atletico Mineiro last time out, winning 3-1, though they once again conceded a lot of good chances (1.42 xG).

 

This has been their big problem so far this season, as they concede high-quality chances to their opponents in every match they play. Though they have only conceded 23 goals in 32 matches, their expected goals against (xGA) in that time is 46.3 xG – with Infogol calculating just a 0.1% chance of this happening. So they have been extremely lucky not to have conceded more goals.

 

Santos vulnerable in defence

 

They do create chance sin matches though, but are in a ‘false’ position according to Infogol’s expected table, in which they sit in the bottom half of the table. So a sustained run of form to the end of the season is not expected.

 

Vasco da Gama

Vasco have been steadily consistent all season long, and have not really moved from mid-table – never being in danger of relegation. An eight match unbeaten run (W3 D5) has seen them move to within one point of a Copa Libertadores place, which has to be their aim come the end of the season.

 

They were very lucky to get a point last time out at home to Vitoria, in what was their worst attacking display of the season, generating just 0.1 xG. That was the second game in which they have struggled going forward, having generated 0.2 xG against Flamengo in a 0-0 draw.

 

Vasco attack out of form

 

Vasco do have the capability to cause a weak Santos defence problems in this game, while also looking susceptible themselves, so goals are expected.

 

Conclusion

Both these teams are defensively vulnerable, and both have the capability to create good chances. Both teams to score looks a good value bet at 1/1.

 

Bets

BTTS @ 1/1

 

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