Back the unders again: Salzburg vs Marseille Europa League Preview

Salzburg vs Marseille. Marseille take a 2-0 lead into the second leg of the Europa League semi-final, can Salzburg hit back? Our Analyst has previewed the game, using expected goals (xG) to generate the best bets.

Salzburg Expected Goals (xG)

Salzburg were rather unfortunate in the first leg to come away two goals down, as they limited Marseille to few high-quality chances (xG: MAR 1.1 – 0.9 SAL).

Fredrik Gulbrandsen had a great chance to get the Austrian side an away goal, but he couldn’t convert his 77th minute chance – which he had a 54% chance of scoring. How costly could that miss prove to be?

 

Gulbrandsen's 1st leg miss

They have got previous of coming back from two goals down, having done just that against Lazio in the last round. Trailing 4-2 after the first leg, they went on to win the second leg 4-1.

Salzburg were very lucky to make it through that tie though (2 Leg xG: SAL 2.6 – 3.8 LAZ), and it is unlikely for lightening to strike twice here, with Infogol calculating that they have just an 8% chance of qualifying for the final.

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Marseille Expected Goals (xG)

Marseille have been one of the strongest teams in this competition this season, and have deserved to advance in all their ties prior to this one (2 Leg xG: MAR 4.4 – 2.1 BRA, MAR 3.9 – 2.6 BIL and MAR 4.8 – 1.4 RBL).

Though they were perhaps fortunate to take a two-goal lead into this game, they did create two good chances (44% and 38%), and clinically took both.

Marseille clinical in 1st leg

Defensively they have been very impressive in the competition this season, conceding an average of just 1.0 xG per game which will stand them in good stead heading into this match.

 

Conclusion

Marseille’s defensive record in Europe means this is expected to be another low-scoring game between these two sides. Despite Salzburg’s best efforts, they may just fall short here.

Recommended Bets:

Under 2.5 Goals @ 11/10

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