Few goals at Bernabeu: Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich Champions League Preview
Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich. Reigning champions Real Madrid take a slender lead into the second leg of their semi-final with Bayern Munich, but will they be able to reach another final? Infogol’s Analyst previews the game, using expected goals (xG) to assess both teams and generate the best bets.
Real Madrid Expected Goals (xG)
Real Madrid seem to have an unbreakable grip on the ‘big-eared’ trophy. Having won the competition for the last two seasons, they are just 90 minutes away from another Champions League final. Surely the can’t win it for the third straight year?
They take a narrow 2-1 lead into the second leg, with two away goals, but were fortunate to come away victorious in Munich, as they were second best throughout in what wasn’t a high-quality match. According to the quality of chances created, that was actually Real Madrid’s worst attacking performance under Zinedine Zidane (xG: BAY 1.9 – 0.7 RMA).
Asensio the match winner in the first leg: Will he start the second?
Though Los Blancos were fortunate in that game, they were due a bit of luck having been unfortunate not to have topped their group, and then unlucky to have been pushed as far as they were against Juventus in the last round (2 leg xG: RMA 5.9 – 4.4 JUV).
Zidane’s side still have a bit to do, with Infogol calculating that they have a 77% chance of making the final, but if they were to make it they will have done it the hard way; beating French champions PSG, Italian champions Juventus, and German champions Bayern Munich.
Bayern Munich Expected Goals (xG)
Bayern Munich will have been very disappointed with last week’s result, but will have taken plenty of positives from a performance in which they limited Madrid, and created several chances themselves.
That game was their first real test of the Champions League, having played Besiktas and Sevilla in the last two rounds, but their performance suggested that they can mix it with the current holders, especially as early injuries to Arjen Robben and Jerome Boateng didn’t help their efforts.
Bayern lost important players to injury
A worrying stat for Bayern, though, is that they have won just one of their last seven meetings with Real Madrid in the Champions League.
Robert Lewandowski “is too quiet in high-stakes games,” and “he doesn’t live up to his status in big matches,” according to Oliver Kahn. The former Bayern and Germany stopper going in on the Polish striker after he failed to hit the net in the first leg. This criticism was perhaps unfair, as he unsurprisingly found himself in goal scoring positions, and had 1 xG to himself. If he gets the same sort of service in the second leg, he should hit the net and silence any critics.
Real Madrid are rightly favourites to win the second leg, but the value lies with a low-scoring encounter, which Infogol calculates should be priced up closer to 17/10. Lewandowski has a point to prove, and if Bayern perform in a similar way to the first leg, he will get chances to score.
Under 2.5 goals @ 2/1
Robert Lewandowski to score anytime @ 10/11