Swans to struggle to breakdown Stoke: Premier League final day betting tips

With the Premier League coming to an end this weekend, our Analyst uses expected goals (xG) to produce the best bets for the final time in the Premier League this season. 

Southampton vs Manchester City

Sunday 15:00

Southampton’s win over Swansea in midweek has all-but guaranteed their Premier League status for another year, barring a 10 goal swing on the final day. It was a deserved victory, as they were the only team to make any sort of an attacking mark on the game (xG: SWA 0.5 – 1.7 SOU).

Manchester City are just one win away from breaking the 100 point barrier, a feat that no other Premier League team has achieved. A 3-1 win over Brighton in midweek kept them on course to do it, though they were far from their best in that game (xG: MCI 1.5 – 1.1 BRI).

Southampton know that a low-scoring defeat is perfectly acceptable, and are expected to keep things tight here, with the ‘no’ option in the both teams to score market looking a good bet at 11/10.

Selection – BTTS ‘no’ @ 6/5

Infogol Premier League Expected Goals (xG) table: Bottom 5

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Swansea vs Stoke

Sunday 15:00

Swansea’s defeat in midweek means they now require a miracle if they are to stay up. The Swans need a 10-goal swing, and considering they have the worst attack in the league – generating just 32.8 xG this season – they are beyond unlikely to pull it off without a huge favour from Manchester City.

Stoke were relegated last weekend by Crystal Palace, having failed to improve sufficiently under Paul Lambert. They are deservedly in the bottom three based on performances, and are playing for pride here.

Though Swansea need a lot of goals here, their poor attacking process means that it is unlikely they will be able to deliver, and the best bet is under 2.5 goals at 6/5.

Selection - Under 2.5 goals @ 6/5

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West Ham vs Everton

Sunday 15:00

A ‘dead-rubber’ at the London Stadium. David Moyes successfully steered West Ham to safety with a 2-0 win over Leicester last weekend, before a deserved draw against Manchester United in midweek. Back-to-back clean sheets show that the Hammers have been defending well, conceding just 0.6 and 0.7 xG in their last two matches.

Everton have coasted towards the end of the season and needed a Tom Davies deflected goal to salvage a point against Southampton last time out. They continue to create a very little in terms of chances, averaging just 1 xG in their last six games. 

Sam Allardyce is under pressure to play more expansive football, but he doesn’t have the players to do so, meaning another dull Everton display is expected, with West Ham keeping thins tight once again in a low-scoring game.

Selection - Under 2.5 goals @ 1/1

Treble pays around 10/1

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