Few goals in away win: Nottingham Forest vs Derby Preview
The East Midlands derby takes place on Sunday, with Nottingham Forest hosting Derby in the EFL Championship. Infogol’s Analyst previews the big game, using expected goals to generate the best bets.
Nottingham Forest Expected Goals (xG)
Nottingham Forest come into this game unbeaten in five matches after a goalless draw with Norwich last time out, a game in which they created the better chances (xG: NOT 1.2 – 0.7 NOR). This mini run has eased any relegation fears that they may have had.
They look set for a mid-table finish, which is a little more comfortable than last season, but there is yet to be an improvement in their process since Aitor Karanka was brought in as manager. He has won just three of his 10 league matches in charge, so there is still plenty of room for improvement.
Forest under Karanka have really struggled to create chances, and have generated just 8.5 xG in their 10 matches, an average of just 0.85 per game, one of the lowest averages in the league in that time. They are expected to struggle again in this match.
Derby Expected Goals (xG)
Gary Rowett’s side have been the fourth best team in the league this season according to xG, so are worthy of their spot in the play-offs. They will be hoping for a result similar to their 2-0 win in the reverse fixture back in October – one which could reinvigorate their season.
Derby fans will be worrying after their team’s poor run of form, as they have faded at the end of the season too many times before. They are winless in six games after conceding a deserved late equaliser to QPR in midweek.
However, during this bad run of form, they have been unfortunate not to have gained more points. Their process has been largely positive, and they should have won three of those six according to expected goals (against Sheff Wed, Leeds and Fulham).
Derby are the better of the two sides, and aren’t playing as badly as their results would suggest. They are expected to edge a tight encounter which should be low-scoring.
Under 2.5 goals @ 8/11
Derby to win @ 6/4