More goals at the Etihad: Manchester City vs Liverpool Champions League 2nd Leg Preview

Manchester City take on Liverpool in the second leg of their Champions League quarter-final, with the Reds bringing a 3-0 advantage into this game. Infogol’s Analyst previews the game, using expected goals (xG) to generate the best bets.

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Manchester City Expected Goals (xG)

Manchester City had a really poor week last week, losing to both Liverpool and Manchester United, and conceding six goals in the process. In the first leg of this tie they just weren’t at the races, and were deservedly beaten by a Liverpool team that created the better of the chances (xG: LIV 1.5 – 0.6 MCI).

Their attacking play was unusually quiet in the first leg, but that wasn’t the case at the weekend. In what many thought would be a title precession, City blew a two goal lead to lose 3-2 to their neighbours. The result didn’t tell the full story though, as based on chances created, City should have won the game comfortably (xG: MCI 3.0 – 1.2 MUN).

City unlucky: Manchester City vs Manchester United shot map

Pep Guardiola’s side will need a similar performance to give themselves any chance of making it through this tie. Infogol calculates that they have just a 9% chance of qualifying to the semi-finals, and they will need to score plenty of goals to do so.

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Liverpool Expected Goals (xG)

Liverpool’s performance in the first leg was mightily impressive, to limit City to just 0.6 xG is a very rare occurrence and one they deserve a lot of credit for. When they had their chances they were also very clinical, scoring three from just 1.5 xG, with Infogol calculating they had an 81% chance of scoring fewer than three from their chances.

Liverpool limited City: Liverpool vs Manchester City 1st leg shot map

Jurgen Klopp used the Merseyside derby at the weekend to rest a few key players, but even without their strongest XI, it was still a decent performance and one in which they created the better chances (xG: EVE 0.7 – 1.0 LIV).

The tie is firmly in Liverpool’s hands, and after seeing Manchester City concede another three goals at the weekend, they will fancy their chances to get at least one away goal. They must be cautious though, as this Manchester City have one of the best attacking outputs in Europe.

 

Conclusion

Manchester City have to go for it, and if an early goal goes in they may rattle Liverpool, but with how the game is expected to play out, Liverpool will get chances on the break. City to win and both teams to score looks a good bet, along with over 2.5 goals despite cramped odds.

Recommended Bets:

Over 2.5 goals @ 2/5

Manchester City to win and both teams to score @ 13/8

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