Liverpool to rack up the goals: Liverpool vs Watford
Liverpool host Watford in the Premier League’s late Saturday kick off, with the Reds looking to bounce back from defeat last weekend. Infogol’s Analyst previews the game, using expected goals to generate the best bets.
Liverpool Expected Goals (xG)
Liverpool were beaten by rivals Manchester United last weekend, leaving them just four points above fifth-placed Chelsea, and with a trip to Stamford Bridge still to come, they can’t afford any more slip-ups in their race for a top-four finish.
The defeat last week was a tough one to take, as although Liverpool weren’t at their best, they didn’t deserve to lose the game, as our Analyst explains in the Big game review. It was a very tight affair in which they created very little but conceded very few chances (xG: MUN 1.0 – 1.1 LIV).
Jurgen Klopp’s team have been the second best attacking side in the league this season, and that game against Manchester United last weekend was a one-off. They are averaging 2.2 xG per game, and are expected to bounce back in style here, especially with an International break coming up.
Watford Expected Goals (xG)
Watford were well-beaten by Arsenal last weekend, as their inconsistent form continues. Under Javi Gracia, they have won all three of their home games, but are yet to win away from home, losing two and drawing one.
In fact, in their three home games under Gracia they have an expected goal difference (xGD) of 1.4, and an xGD of -1.7 in their away games – showing that their performances as well as their results have been much worse away from home.
They won’t be looking forward to facing this Liverpool team, but thanks to their home form they find themselves a comfortable nine points clear of the drop zone. They are conceding an average of 1.6 xG per game, and are expected to be punished at Anfield.
Liverpool will be looking to bounce back and are expected to revert to their usual process, which is the third best in the league. They are taken to win comfortably here, with Infogol calculating that 3-0 is the most likely outcome. Backing Liverpool to win both halves also looks a good bet.
Liverpool to win 3-0 @ 13/2
Liverpool to win both halves @ 13/10