La Liga GW2 Review
Using expected goals (xG), Infogol’s Analyst reviews the weekend’s action from La Liga, with plenty of talking points across the 10 matches. Assessing performances and not just results, the Analyst will aim to paint a clearer picture of the matches, including selecting a Team to Back for GW3.
Actual vs Expected Goal (xG) totals La Liga GW2
The most ‘unfair’ result of the weekend came in Gran Canaria, as Atletico Madrid ran out 5-1 winners over Las Palmas. 26.95 is the lowest fairness rating of the season so far, and with Atletico scoring five times from just eight shots totalling 0.5 xG, it’s easy to see why. Infogol calculates that the chance of them scoring five from the chances the created was just 0.02%, an incredibly low probability. Las Palmas can count themselves unfortunate in this match, but that is the second week running that Atletico have been on the fortunate side of the result.
Atleti fortunate to score 5 - shot map
Real Madrid were very unlucky in their match at the weekend, drawing 2-2 with Valencia at the Bernabeu. Valencia showed glimpses of potential in their performance, but it was the lack of a cutting edge from Karim Benzema that meant this match ended in a draw. Madrid had a 78% chance of scoring more than the two they did, and created a season high 4.16 xG, 80% of which fell to Karim Benzema. The Frenchman failed to score from his chances, which amounted to 3.3 xG, only a 4% probability he would fail to hit the net. Still, no need to panic for Madrid, as if they keep putting in performances like this, the goals will come.
Benzema had a night to forget
Getafe’s 1-0 defeat to Sevilla was also seen as an ‘unfair’ result, as was Levante’s 2-2 draw with Deportivo. Getafe created the better chances against Sevilla, so they were unlucky to come away empty handed, while Levante can count themselves unlucky not to get all three points after another strong home performance in which they generated a host of chances.
Away wins for Bilbao and Leganes against Espanyol and Eibar respectively were also ‘unfair’, with both games very even in terms of chances created. Meanwhile, Real Betis and Barcelona were deserved winners over Celta Vigo (2-1) and Alaves (2-0) respectively after solid performances. Messi was back on the scoresheet for Barca, while Sergio Leon got his first goal for his new club Betis.
Messi back on the scoresheet
Girona were very impressive once again, beating a struggling Malaga team 1-0, a ‘fair’ result in which they once again created a lot of good chances. Real Sociedad’s 3-0 win over Villarreal was the ‘fairest’ result of the weekend though, as La Real generated a host of scoring opportunities while conceding very few.
GW3 Team to Back – Real Sociedad
Sociedad were very impressive in their victory over Villarreal in GW2, and in their win away at Celta Vigo in GW1, creating a lot of chances in both matches. They travel to face a struggling Deportivo team in GW3, and at 6/4 look a great price to make it three wins from three.