PaddyPower Hotshot Jackpot: Infogol’s selections

Infogol’s Analyst uses expected goals (xG) data to provide the best advice when choosing your six selections for PaddyPower’s Hotshot Jackpot, where you can play for free for a chance to win £100,000.



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Bournemouth vs Newcastle

First Goalscorer – Callum Wilson

Despite his injuries this season, Callum Wilson is Bournemouth’s top scorer in the Premier League with seven goals. He has the highest xG for Bournemouth, suggesting that he gets on the end of chances the most of any Cherries player. He scored first against Chelsea a few games ago, and can do the same here against a vulnerable Newcastle side.


Liverpool vs West Ham

First Goalscorer – Mo Salah

Mo Salah continues to be ruthless in front of goal, and has scored in 12 of his last 14 Premier League matches – an astonishing return by the Egyptian. Only Harry Kane has more xG than Mo Salah (18.5 xG) this season, so he gets at least one ‘big’ chance per game (0.7 xG per 90). He has scored first on four occasions, and could do so again against a frail West Ham defence which Liverpool put four past earlier in the season.

Burnley vs Southampton

First Goalscorer – Sam Vokes

This match features two teams that don’t score many goals. Though Burnley are on a torrid run of form, Sam Vokes is selected. He has the best xG per 90 (0.3) within the Burnley team, and though his numbers are far from impressive, if Burnley are to score in this match then he is the most likely to get the goal.


Watford vs Everton

First Goalscorer – Wayne Rooney

There isn’t much between these two sides in the league table, but Everton are the better of the two teams. Though Wayne Rooney hasn’t scored for a while, he is still Everton’s main contributor of both xG and actual goals, and is averaging 0.4 xG per 90 –if this process continues, he will get a few chances in this match.

Premier League leaders in xG

Man Utd vs Chelsea

First Goalscorer – Romelu Lukaku

The big game of the weekend should be a tight one, and though Romelu Lukaku is yet to score against any of the top six this season, he is expected to get that monkey off his back here. Lukaku has the fourth-highest xG of anyone in the league (12.3), at 0.5 xG per 90, getting at least one ‘big chance’ per game, which could be decisive in what is expected to be a close encounter on Sunday.

Crystal Palace vs Tottenham

First Goalscorer – Harry Kane

Harry Kane leads the way in both actual (23) and expected (21.9) goals this season, and if Tottenham are to win this game, Kane is likely to be on the scoresheet. He has hit the net in four of his last five Premier League games, and should add to that tally against a Crystal Palace side that has conceded nine goals in its last four matches.


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