A more entertaining second leg: Fulham vs Derby EFL Championship play-off semi-final

Derby beat Fulham 1-0 to take a first leg lead, meaning Fulham have it all to do here. Infogol’s Analyst uses expected goals (xG) to assess both teams and generate the best bets for the match.

Fulham Expected Goals (xG)

Fulham were frustrated by Derby in the first leg, but were by far the better side and were unfortunate to come away from the game losing. 

They limited Derby to very few chances, but did struggle to be as productive in attack as they have been all season, with their best chance being squandered by Floyd Ayite (32%).

Slavisa Jokanovic’s side will undoubtedly go full throttle at Derby from the first minute, and with the powers of creation they have in their team, are fancied to generate more, and better chances in the second leg.

Derby Expected Goals (xG)

Derby were extremely fortunate to come away from the first leg with a one goal advantage, as they mustered only three shots in the entire 90 minutes infront of their own fans.

They only had a 15% chance of scoring from the chances they created, and would win the game 6% of the time given the expected goals created by each side (xG: DER 0.16 – 0.85 FUL).

Garry Rowett is expected to set his team up in the same way as the first leg, deep and between the width of the penalty area, in an attempt to stifle Fulham for a second time. This approach isn’t expected to be as successful in this second leg.

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Conclusion

Fulham have it all to do in front of their own fans, and know that they need to improve on their first leg performance, although only marginally. Derby’s tactical ploy to prevent Fulham creating chances is expected to be unsuccessful in this second leg, with a high-scoring game anticipated.

Recommended Bets:

Over 2.5 goals @ 9/10

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