Chelsea to come out on top: Chelsea vs Liverpool Premier League Preview

Chelsea vs Liverpool. With just six points separating these teams, Chelsea know that anything less than a win will confirm Europa League football for them next season. Infogol’s Analyst uses expected goals (xG) to preview the game and produce the best bets.

Chelsea Expected Goals (xG)

Chelsea’s top four hopes looked to be all but over after their 1-1 draw with West Ham last month, but three away wins in a row mean that it is still mathematically possible and has renewed hope.

The only caveat; they need to beat Liverpool and hope for them to slip up against Brighton on the final day of the season. In total, Infogol calculates just a 4% chance that they will finish fourth.

A 1-0 win over Swansea last time out was far from easy on the eye, but did have shades of performances and results from their title winning season (xG: SWA 0.6 – 1.3 CHE).

They have been the fourth best team in the league this season according to Infogol’s expected goals table, with it being the over-performing Manchester United who appear to be costing Chelsea a Champions League place.

Infogol's Premier League Expected Goals (xG) table

They have been creating plenty of chances in recent matches, averaging 2 xG per game in their last six league outings.

Eden Hazard has been unusually quiet in recent games, and it has been Olivier Giroud who has made the greatest impact of late. The French forward is averaging 1.2 expected goal involvements per 90 minutes since his arrival at Stamford Bridge, and he may well have a say in this game.

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Liverpool Expected Goals (xG)

Liverpool come into this important game on the back of a 7-6 aggregate success against Roma in the Champions League.

An outstanding achievement that means they reach their first Champions League final since 2007. That 4-2 win in Rome may have taken plenty out of Jurgen Klopp’s players ahead of this game though.

While they were once again electric going forward, there continues to be question marks surrounding their defensive capabilities, as they conceded a lot of good chances (xG: ROM 2.9 – 1.9 LIV).

Liverpool 2 Leg xG total vs Roma: Reds defensively vulnerable

With this being a relatively important game for the Reds, given that a point is enough to secure a top four finish and take the pressure off the players ahead of the Champions League final, a strong line-up is expected.

One thing is for sure, they will create chances at Stamford Bridge. They have averaged 2.1 xG this season, so will more than likely get on the scoresheet.

Mohamed Salah is still just one goal away from breaking the 38 game season scoring record, and if he was to play in this game, he would be by far Liverpool’s greatest goal threat, averaging 0.8 xG per 90 this season.

 

Conclusion

This game carries significance, as anything other than a win leaves Chelsea in the Europa League next season. Both teams are expected to score in this game, but with that a very short price, preference is for backing Chelsea to win and both teams to score. With Liverpool’s Champions League exertions and vulnerable defensive line, Antonio Conte’s men can get the win they need.

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Chelsea to win and both teams to score @ 11/4

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