Chapecoense vs Gremio: Big Match Preview Betting Tips
Chapecoense vs Gremio Betting Tips. Infogol’s Analyst looks at the big match in the Brazilian Serie A this week, which sees leaders Chapecoense play in-form Gremio, using stats and data to select the best bets.
To many people, Chapecoense are surprise leaders of the Brazilian Serie A, but after their performances so far this season, they deserve to be where they are.
They have won three and drawn one of their opening four matches, with their defence the most impressive aspect of this early season success. According to expected goals (xG) they have the best defensive record in the league so far, conceding just 2.32 xG.
Against Champions Palmeiras and in-form Corinthians, they conceded just 0.26 and 0.28 xG respectively, in what were really dominant performances and ones that stand out as good performances and results.
Defensively Solid: Chapecoense vs Palmeiras shot-map
Chapecoense’s last game away at Cruzeiro ended in a 2-0 victory, but they had to weather a second half storm in order to secure the three points. That was their toughest match to date, but striker Wellington Paulista helped lead his side to victory. He has netted three times in four matches and will be one to keep an eye on in this match.
Leading from the front: Wellington Paulista
Gremio have won three of their four matches so far this season, and Infogol has them at the top of the table in our ‘expected table’ – which is based on performances and not just results.
The ‘Immortal Tricolour’ have been dominant in every one of their games so far this season, creating more xG than their opponents in every game. They opened the season with a comfortable win against Botafogo in which they created 3.40 xG, and followed that up with a win against Atletico Paranaense in what was a much tighter game (0.90 – 0.62 xG).
Sport Recife beat Gremio 4-3 and inflicted the only defeat of the season so far. Gremio were very unfortunate to lose that game though as they conceded very few high-quality chances amounting to 1.31 xG, from which Sport hit the net four times, with Infogol calculating this had just a 4.4% chance of happening.
Sport Recife vs Gremio: Percentage chance of scoring (x) from xG created
They bounced back from that defeat in good fashion with a comfortable victory over Vasco da Gama, in which they once again created a lot of good chances. Gremio have been the best attacking team in the league so far this season, creating a league high 8.01 xG in their four matches so far.
Danger Man: Lucas Barrios
Lucas Barrios has scored two goals in three matches so far this season, and if he leads the line in this match, the Paraguayan striker has the ability to cause Chapecoense problems.
A match between the league’s best defence (Chapecoense) against the league’s best attack (Gremio) is always going to be a tight one. On this occasion, it is the Chapecoense defence that is expected to come out on top, and thwart Gremio’s attacking talents.
Chapecoense to win @ 17/10
Under 2.5 goals @ 8/15
Wellington Paulista to score anytime @ 9/4