Ronaldo to score in tight game: Champions League Preview

PSG take on Real Madrid in the second leg of their Champions League tie, with the French giants trailing 3-1 from the first leg. Infogol’s Analyst uses expected goals to preview the game and generate the best bets.


PSG Expected Goals (xG)

PSG were deservedly beaten in the first leg at the Bernabeu (xG: RMA 2.4 – 1.1 PSG), but are generally much tighter at the back at home (haven’t conceded in their last three league and cup matches at the Parc des Princes, albeit against lesser opposition).

Though there were plenty of goals in the first leg, this match could be much cagier with so much on the line, and PSG’s attacking prowess has been hit by losing £220 million signing Neymar to injury. Infogol’s model gives them a 17.7% chance of making it to the quarter-finals.

PSG face uphill task

Against the reigning champions - a team that create chances – PSG will be aware that they need to be cautious in their approach or they could get caught out with a sucker punch.


Real Madrid Expected Goals (xG)

Real Madrid only really came to life in the first leg when Zinedine Zidane changed the shape and opted for more width with Marco Asensio and Lucas Vazquez, so it will be interesting to see how he sets up in Paris.

They have generated 21 xG in seven Champions League matches so far this season, averaging 3 xG per 90 mins, but most of those games were against much lesser opposition and they do not need to overcommit here.

Cautious defending needed from Real

Cristiano Ronaldo took his Champions League tally this season to 11 goals (averaging 1.4 xG per 90 mins) thanks to a brace in the first game, and has now scored in all seven Champions League matches this season; he looks the obvious contender to score again.


Real Madrid were the better side in the first leg, which was very open, but with so much on the line this is expected to be a cagier tie. At a huge price, backing under 2.5 goals looks good value, as does Ronaldo to score anytime at even money.


Recommended bets:

Under 2.5 goals @ 11/5

Cristiano Ronaldo to score anytime @ 1/1 (EVS)


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