Brazil Serie A GW13 Review
With GW13 concluding with an entertaining game at Avai, the Infogol Analyst’s takes a look at the action, looking at performances and not just results (using expected goals (xG)). The Analyst will aim to paint a clearer picture of the week’s matches, including selecting a Team to Watch for GW14.
Actual vs Expected Goal (xG) totals GW13
Corinthians once again extended their lead at the top of the table with yet another victory, this time away at rivals Palmeiras in Derby Paulista. They are now 10 points clear after 13 matches, and remain unbeaten, leaving everyone in the league questioning if they are catchable as they are showing no signs of slowing down. Though their results have been impressive, they have been fortunate in matches, with some of their performances not deserving of the points. GW13 was a prime example against Palmeiras, as they managed just two shots (excluding a penalty) amounting to 0.11 xG – one of their worst attacking displays of the season to date.
Slightly fortunate? Shot map Palmeiras vs Corinthians
There were also fortunate away wins for Bahia and Gremio, who beat Ponte Preta and Flamengo respectively. Bahia won 3-0, with the surprising factor being that they managed to keep a clean sheet, as Ponte Preta generated 2.3 xG. Gremio managed just four shots against Flamengo, totalling 0.11 xG but yet managed to win 1-0. A surprise as Infogol calculates that, from the chances both teams created, Gremio would win this match just 2% of the time.
Vasco and Santos can also count themselves fortunate to have gained three points on the road, as they conceded a lot of good opportunities to their opponents. Vasco beat Vitoria 4-1 to get their first away victory of the season, but were very lucky as Vitoria missed a host of high-quality chances. Santos edged out Atletico Mineiro thanks to a last minute goal, that after both sides had missed a penalty. It was Mineiro that had the better of the game in which a draw would have been a fairer result.
Santos fortunate, but up to 3rd
Sao Paulo and Chapecoense can both count themselves unlucky in GW13, as their poor seasons continued. Sao Paulo were held at home by bottom club Atletico Goianiense, a result that leaves them still in the relegation zone. They created a host of chances in what was their best attacking performance of the season so far, and they were unfortunate not to get the three points. Chapecoense were beaten 3-0 by Sport Recife, and although they didn’t have their best performance, they were unlucky to lose, and by such a margin. Infogol calculates that the probability of Sport scoring three from the chances they created was just 3.1%.
Percentage chance of scoring (x) from chances created – Sport Recife vs Chapecoense
Cruzeiro, Botafogo and Coritiba all registered away wins in GW13, meaning the total number of away wins in GW13 was eight. Cruzeiro made it three wins from four thanks to a deserved and comfortable 2-0 victory against Atletico Paranaense, a game in which they conceded very few chances. Botafogo edged out Rio rivals Fluminense thanks to a goal from top-scorer Roger, in what was a comfortable victory. Flu were disappointing, and were limited to very few scoring opportunities. Coritiba got back to winning ways by deservedly thumping struggling Avai, creating some good chances in a good win.
Cruzeiro becoming more consistent
GW14 Team to Watch – Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro are beginning to find a level of consistency in their performances that always sees them come away having created the better chances than their opponents. While ever they are doing this, they have a great chance of extending their good run of form and continue moving up the table.