Brazil Serie A GW11 Review

GW11 concluded with an entertaining game on Monday, and so it’s time for the Infogol Analyst to review the action. By looking at performances and not just results (using expected goals (xG)), the Analyst will aim to paint a clearer picture, including a Team to Watch for GW12.


Actual vs Expected Goal (xG) totals GW11 


Corinthians extended their lead at the top of the table to seven points after registering another win, their 9th victory from 11 matches. They comfortably beat Botafogo in Sao Paulo, creating plenty of chances, with Jo recovering from missing a penalty to snatch the winner and his sixth of the season. The visitors were disappointing in this match, mustering just three shots equating to 0.23 expected goals (xG).


Corinthians unrelenting 


 Flamengo and Palmeiras are two of the form teams in the league at the moment, and both registered home wins against Sao Paulo and Gremio respectively. Flamengo did just enough against a struggling Sao Paulo team, with Diego once again playing a pivotal role in their success. Palmeiras required an own goal to get the three points against high-flying Gremio, but were deserved winners, as they limited Gremio to just 0.24 xG. These two teams now sit in the top four, and will be looking to put pressure on Corinthians over the coming weeks.


After a slow start, Atletico Mineiro look to be finding some form at long last, picking up their third win from their last four matches – beating Cruzeiro 3-1 at home. They were the better team on the day, and created some high-quality chances, something they have been doing rarely so far this season. Fred helped himself to two goals, as he looks to kick on now this season.


Mineiro creating better quality chances in recent weeks 


Sport Recife put in the performance of the week to register a second successive victory as they beat Atletico Paranaense. They conceded only two attempts on their goal in this match, tallying to just 0.07 xG in what was their best defensive performance of the season. From the chances they generated, there was only a 1% chance they would have lost this match, showing just how dominant they were.


Atletico Goianiense and Vitoria were both held at home and were both unfortunate not to get all three points in GW11. Atletico Goianiense remain bottom after their draw with Santos, a game in which they created the better of the chances, but a second half sending off offered the visitors a lifeline. Vitoria also remain in trouble after their goalless draw with Bahia, as they too created the better chances, conceding very few (just 0.28 xG) and being unfortunate not to win.


Vitoria unlucky: Just a 14.2% chance they would fail to score vs Bahia 


 Fluminense and Chapecoense played out an entertaining 3-3 draw in the last game of GW11, a match that had everything – goals, a red-card and some questionable decisions. Flu were unlucky over the 90 minutes to come away with just a point after creating 2.95 xG. Both these teams started the season well, but both have seen results take a turn for the worst, and will need to improve quickly if they are to make the Libertadores places this season.


 Flu frustrations  


There were two more draws in GW11, as Avai shared the spoils in a goalless encounter with Ponte Preta, and Coritiba were held to a 2-2 draw at home by Vasco da Gama. Avai were slightly fortunate to get a point against Ponte Preta as they created the fewer chances, and it was the same story for Coritiba, with Vasco getting their first away point of the season thanks to a last minute equaliser.


GW12 Team to WatchAtletico Mineiro


Atletico Mineiro’s performances have improved in recent weeks, as have their results, after what can only be described as a slow start to the season. Their recent victories against Cruzeiro and Sao Paulo showed plenty of promising signs, and they come up against a team in GW12 who are out of form and struggling in Botafogo. Both are playing away from home in the Copa Libertadores in midweek, with Mineiro traveling to Cochabamba in Bolivia and Botafogo heading to Montevideo in Uruguay, but Mineiro crucially have an extra 24 hours to prepare, with Botafogo playing Friday-Sunday. Atletico Mineiro are the team to watch in GW12.



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