Brazil Serie A GW10 Review

GW10 ended on Tuesday, so Infogol’s Analyst has reviewed the action from Brazil’s Serie A, looking at performances and not just results using expected goals (xG). Includes a Team to Watch for GW11.



Actual vs Expected Goal (xG) totals GW10 


The big match of GW10 which saw leaders Corinthians head to second place Gremio and get a narrow 1-0 win. That now means they are still unbeaten this season, winning eight of their 10 matches. They were slightly fortunate to hold on and get all three points, as Gremio created a host of chances – and missed a late penalty. Infogol calculates that, from the chances created in the match, Corinthians would have only an 8% chance of winning the game.


Missed opportunities: Shot-map Gremio vs Corinthians 


There were five more away wins in GW10, and all of the victors were slightly fortunate to get the three points. Sport Recife and Atletico Mineiro were two of those, and both registered 1-0 wins against Santo and Chapecoense respectively. Sport were involved in a tight game in which a draw would have been a fair result, but Mineiro were extremely lucky, creating just 0.21 xG and being second best for most of the match.


Flamengo and Avai also secured somewhat fortunate away wins. Flamengo managed to break down the 10 men of Bahia, but scored from a low-probability chance – as Bahia created the better of the chances. Avai scored two early goals away at Botafogo before weathering a severe storm, conceding 2.52 xG but keeping a clean-sheet to get a vital three points.


Last season’s champions, and GW9 Team to Watch, Palmeiras were the other winners on their travels, as they edged past Ponte Preta to register their fourth win from five games. They look to be finding some good form, but were fortunate against Ponte Preta, with only a 6.2% chance they would score two goals from the 0.4 xG they created.


Palmeiras in good form 


Vasco da Gama deservedly got their fifth win of the season in GW10, all of which have come at home, beating Atletico Goianiense 1-0. They created the better chances in the match but needed a moment of magic from Nene to get the three points.


Magic from Nene: scoring Vasco's winner with a superb free-kick 


Cruzeiro and Atletico Paranaense also won at home, beating Coritiba and Vitoria respectively, as the both moved up the table. Cruzeiro were comfortable winners, creating some good chances, with Rafael Sobis looking very sharp upfront for them. Atletico Paranaense made it four wins on the spin with a 4-1 thumping of Vitoria, and although they deserved the win, they were slightly fortunate to score four.


Sao Paulo and Fluminense shared the spoils after a 1-1 draw, a fair result as both teams created an even amount of chances and xG. Sao Paulo’s struggles continue, as they are now five games without a win, while Fluminense are slowly making progress.


GW11 Team to WatchFluminense


Fluminense put in another good display against Sao Paulo in a 1-1 draw, and have been one of the most consistent teams this season in terms of creating chances. They are expected to continue this into GW11, which will give them a great chance of picking up another three points.




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