Arsenal vs Manchester City: City to win again

Arsenal host Manchester City on Thursday in a repeat of last weekend’s Carabao Cup final. Infogol’s Analyst previews the game, using expected goals to generate the best bets.


Arsenal Expected Goals (xG)

Arsenal’s players and coaching staff came under a huge amount of scrutiny for their performance in the Carabao Cup final on Sunday, with a high profile ex-professional going as far as calling them ‘spineless’. It’s fair to say they have a lot to prove in this match.

They haven’t fared much better in the league, though, and are now 10 points adrift of the top four, with Infogol calculating that they now have less than a 5% chance of qualifying for the Champions League through a top four finish.

% chance per team in Premier League race for the top four

Arsenal’s overall process has been the fifth best in the league this season, but they have the worst defensive record in the top six, conceding 36 goals (36.5 xG - worse than bottom side West Brom before the weekend).

If they are to salvage anything from a below par season, Arsenal have to improve their defensive process, but they won’t be looking forward to facing Manchester City again.


Manchester City Expected Goals (xG)

Manchester City won the first leg of what they hope will be a historic treble when running out comfortable 3-0 winners over Arsenal at Wembley, where it could be argued that they didn’t even get out of second gear.

City have blown everyone away this year, and have made every other team look very ordinary, not just on actual results, but also expected. They have the highest expected goal difference (46.5 xGD) in the league, some 17.5 xG better than second best Tottenham.

Infogol Premier League xG table GW28

City are averaging 2.5 xG per game, and just 0.8 xG against per game, showing just how good they have been this season. Pep Guardiola has improved their process by an incredible amount and deserves a lot of credit, and will be no doubt be looking to wrap up the title as soon as possible – which Infogol calculates is a certainty (100% chance of winning the league).

Sergio Aguero opened the scoring at the weekend, in turn extending his immense start to 2018 where he has scored 15 goals in 13 matches in all competitions. He has netted nine times in the Premier League this year, and looks the best bet to open the scoring once again for a City side that has scored first in 78% of its league matches.



Manchester City are expected to prove too strong once again for this Arsenal team, though there is no value in just backing the league leaders to win. With goals expected again, a better selection would be Manchester City to win and over 2.5 goals. Sergio Aguero looks a good price to open the scoring again.


Recommended bets:

Manchester City to win and over 2.5 goals @ 13/10

Sergio Aguero to score first @ 7/2


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