Arsenal vs Everton: Arsenal likely to be too strong
Arsenal vs Everton is the late kick off on Saturday, with both having differing fortunes in midweek. Infogol’s Analyst previews the game, using underlying expected goals (xG) data to produce the best bets.
Arsenal didn’t have the best week. A 3-1 defeat at lowly Swansea leaves them dejected and now eight points adrift of the top four. They were deservedly beaten in that game (SWA 2.2 – 1.1 ARS), as they continue to look vulnerable in defence.
The signing of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang was the only positive from midweek, and he will definitely add to an already entertaining front line that has been the third best so far this season, according to xG (48.6).
The Gunners have been inconsistent in their performances of late, but everyone knows that when they are in full flow, they can blow anyone away – just ask Crystal Palace. Everton could find themselves on the end of a similar result if they continue at their usual level.
Everton ended a six match winless run by beating Leicester on Wednesday night, a much needed win that quashed any thoughts that they would be pulled back into a relegation scrap. They were fortunate to get the win though, and have their crossbar to thank after Kalechi Iheanacho hit it twice within the space of 2 seconds (0.8 & 0.6 xG chances).
The Toffees are still a way off where Sam Allardyce wants them, as they have the third worst defensive record this season (41.3 xGA). There appears to have been no drastic improvement since his arrival either, so Allardyce still has plenty on his hands.
The Toffees are up against it in this match, and will almost certainly not want a repeat of their 5-2 defeat earlier in the season (EVE 1.0 – 4.3 ARS xG) – a result which cost Ronald Koeman his job. They will give up chances in this match, and if they are to get anything, they will need luck on their side.
Over 2.5 goals @ 8/13
With this game seeing the third best attack vs the third worst defence, goals are expected, with over 2.5 goals looking a good bet.
Arsenal to score three or more goals @ 11/10
Infogol forecasts that Arsenal will register 2.7 xG in this match, so for the Gunners to score three or more goals looks a good price at 11/10.