Narrow home win: Arsenal vs AC Milan

Arsenal take on AC Milan in the second leg of their Europa League tie, and have a two goal advantage to defend at the Emirates. Infogol’s Analyst previews the game, using expected goals (xG) to generate the best bets.

Arsenal Expected Goals (xG)

Arsenal bounced back from four consecutive defeats by beating AC Milan in the first leg, a much needed win for the players and the manager, with both coming under increased pressure.

The 2-0 score-line flattered Arsenal a little (xG: ACM 1.4 – 1.2 ARS), though the application and performance of the players was much improved. Based on the quality of chances created, Arsenal were fortunate to come away with a lead.

AC Milan vs Arsenal: First leg shot map

Other than Aaron Ramsey’s ‘big chance’ (86%), Arsenal actually struggled to create anything of note, and if this happens again in the second leg, they may leave themselves in an uncomfortable position come the end of the match.

AC Milan Expected Goals (xG)

AC Milan had the chances to in the first leg to make this a more manageable task, as it is, Infogol calculates that they have just a 10% chance of qualifying for the quarter-finals.

Leonardo Bonucci’s miss before Arsenal’s second goal may prove costly, as he had a 52% chance of levelling the score with that chance in the first half of the first leg.

Milan’s overall performance in the first leg was disappointing for a team that was unbeaten in 13 games prior, with a lack of urgency and pace to their play undoubtedly worrying for Genarro Gattuso. They need to improve their level of performance for this game, and you feel they need to score first if they are to have any chance of qualifying



Arsenal are in the driving seat in this tie, and will look to stifle Milan’s threat to make life as comfortable as possible. They are expected to do so successfully in another low-scoring game between the two sides, with the hosts pinching the win.


Recommended Bets:

Back Under 2.5 goals @ 1/1

Back Arsenal to win @ 21/20

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