Tight affair expected at The Den: Championship Friday Preview

Fulham travel to Millwall in Friday night’s televised Championship match. Infogol’s Analyst uses expected goals (xG) data to generate the best bets.

Millwall expected goals

Seventeen matches - that’s the number of games that Millwall’s unbeaten run stretches over. “I like records – I like chasing them and beating them,” said Lions boss Neil Harris earlier in the run. “I like recognition for the players and the team.”

Sheff U v Millwall shot map

Most have been well-deserved results, though Harris’ side were fortunate to escape from Bramall Lane with a point on Saturday (xG: SHE 2.25 – 0.62 MIL), and they’ll need to perform better offensively if they are to beat Fulham.

Lee Gregory is the most likely Millwall scorer – the striker has 10 Championship goals to his name, though his xG total of 14.82 suggests he hasn’t been the most clinical.

Millwall have a well-organised defence to call upon, one that has conceded just three goals in their last seven games, though it is one that has been over-performing (total xGA of 9.73 over the same period).

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Fulham expected goals

Twenty-one games – that’s the even more impressive number of games in Fulham’s own unbeaten streak (though in terms of budgets, there might not be much between the two achievements, indeed you could make an argument for Millwall's run being more impressive).

Whilst victories over Norwich (2-0), Leeds (2-0), Sheffield Wednesday (1-0) and Reading (1-0) were all merited, Fulham’s 1-1 draw with Brentford (xG: FUL 0.74 – 1.37 BRE) at the weekend was the first time that Slaviša Jokanović’s team have been lucky to escape with a point since a 2-2 draw with QPR last month.

Championship end of season predicted standings

Three Fulham players were included in the PFA Championship Team of the Year earlier this week, including Ryan Sessegnon. The left-sided player is a threat wherever he plays – the 17-year-old has 14 goals to his name this term (only 8.56 xG though), as well as six assists.

Conclusion

A grand total of two goals have featured in the last three match-ups between these two sides, including a 1-0 win for Fulham at Craven Cottage earlier this season, and another tight match looks on the cards. Does something have to give with both teams defending long unbeaten streaks? Possibly not; under 2.5 goals is recommended at Evens, and it would be no surprise to see a low-scoring draw.

Recommended bet: Under 2.5 goals @ Evens

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